The old adage that ‘any team can win on any given Sunday’ may be out-of-date.
There are a handful of squads in the National Football League this season that don’t appear capable of winning on any day in any country. Now, it is true that every team in the NFL has at least one win this year, but those limited number of wins for the bad teams have come at the expense of another team seemingly incapable of beating an organization not in disarray.
From my desk, I don’t like this at all. I thrive on parity where my skill at identifying a team in a motivation spot can take advantage of a team most consider significantly better but are in a trap. A number of teams have sprung traps this year simply because they were the benefactor of playing against a team incapable of taking advantage of an advantageous situation.
Fortunately, because of the huge contribution of Kevin in our handicapping this year, his old man has not gotten caught on a handful of teams that would have lost for our clients. Kevin seems to think that team talent makes a difference. An interesting theory that I have never subscribed to.
But this year, oh yeah, talent makes a difference.
Last night’s telecast of the Baltimore Ravens game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers included a halftime interview with basketball great Steph Curry. Curry’s last comment was, “Go Panthers.” ESPN studio announcer Scott Van Pelt simply said, “Good luck with that.” And Curry bent over in laughter.
That’s how bad the Panthers are, their most ardent fans are bent over … most not in laughter.
The Panthers are not alone this year in horrible performances week-after-week. The Miami Dolphins, who without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback appear overmatched by the opposing team’s mascot. The New England Patriots are paying for years of dominance with doormat status. The New Orleans Saints teased their followers with a pair of season opening wins that had them on top of the football world, but after five losses in a row they don’t seem to have a prayer.
Okay, based on bell curve principles, this must mean that there are some extraordinary teams at the top of the charts.
Not really.
The lone undefeated team, the Kansas City Chiefs, are doing it more on guile and a winning tradition than overall dominance against the competition. The Patrick Mahomes led offense ranks near the middle of the league in points scored, while their defense has made the key plays to spike their efforts.
The Detroit Lions look to us like the best team in the National Football Conference, but an early season loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field reveals they are vulnerable. The 49ers, a team at the top of the NFC in recent years, has a losing three wins and four losses record this season.
The two teams that on paper appear the best in football, the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders, each have two losses this season. And the Commanders, well it is pretty early in their quest to be recognized among the NFL best given they are under the direction of a rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, and new head coach, Dan Quinn.
Of course, that is the same combination that landed the Houston Texans in the playoffs last season.
So, what does all this non parity mean?
Does it mean we just take the better teams whenever they are playing the league's worst?
If that is the case, it means that the Detroit Lions take down the Tennessee Titans this week without breaking a sweat.
What? A division leader off an emotional win against their primary division competition is now going to cover a double-digit spread against an out of conference opponent?
Can’t be … or should I say, it never used to be.
It hurts me to write this next line:
Qoxhi Picks: Detroit Lions (-10½) over Tennessee Titans