NFL 2026 Season - Week 6
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Worst to First
     
 
Not Bad
by Dennis Ranahan

The defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs are perfect this season, five wins in five starts, and are underdogs this week to a team that has struggled most of the year. Their opponent this week is the San Francisco 49ers who have lost as many games as they have won with three wins and three losses.

What is this?

A gift from the books?

First of all, know this, the books don’t offer gifts. Every week, every game, they are on a mission to separate gamblers from their money. And, they do a very good job of it. A little over half the bettors on this matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers have accepted their points with Patrick Mahomes and company.

It can’t be a bad bet, can it?

No, I would not say that getting the Chiefs with points is a bad bet. This is a team that won three straight postseason games last season as an underdog to the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and 49ers and came out champions. Want to anticipate having fun on Sunday, bet on Mahomes. He may be the greatest of all time even while considering Tom Brady, Joe Montana and any other former star with multiple Super Bowl rings.

Still, what we have here when these two teams square off on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium is a Chiefs team sitting comfortably atop their division standings and the 49ers in a dogfight in the NFC West. From a simple factor of need, the edge goes to the home team in this rematch of two of the past five Super Bowls.

The Chiefs beat the 49ers in each of those Roman numeral games, downing Kyle Shanahan’s squad with a fourth quarterback comeback in Super Bowl LIV and in overtime last February. Those losses could add fuel to the 49ers competitive edge.

While Mahomes is the engine that makes the Chiefs go, this year it is Kansas City’s defense that is as much responsible for their 5-0 start. The Chiefs have scored 118 points this season, which ranks sixth in the 16 team American Football Conference. Their defense has limited opponents to 85 points, Only the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings have allowed fewer in the entire league.

So, we know why the Chiefs are perfect. Mahomes puts up points whenever they seemingly need them, and the defense is rock solid. Which brings us back to this, why are they underdogs in San Francisco?

Only one reason.

Because they are going to lose.

Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-1½) over Kansas City Chiefs