“This is a must game for Cincinnati,” one of my most trusted staff members said in Saturday’s handicapping session.
Yeah, that’s right, but every game since they dropped their first two of the season has been a “must game” for the Bengals. That fact hasn’t generated enough wins for Joe Burrow and company for me to get excited about their prospects tonight when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers to close out Week 11 Sunday action. This contest was utilized by NBC and their flex option, shifting off the game scheduled between the New York Jets and Indianapolis to this seemingly more attractive matchup.
Tonight’s game can also be a “must” game for the home team. The Chargers came into the week trailing the only unbeaten team in the league in their AFC West Division race, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chargers need a win tonight to stay in shouting distance of their division front-runners and improve their postseason prospects of earning a Wild Card berth.
The Bengals need a win tonight to keep even a flicker of hope alive of playing past the first weekend in January.
So, who has the better chance of winning this “must” game?
Both teams have been surprises this season … the Bengals in a bad way and the Chargers in a good way. Cincinnati, in an event still unexplained by logic, lost their home opener to the New England Patriots, then dropped two more games before finally getting to the Carolina Panthers on their schedule.
The Chargers opened the season with a pair of wins over two lightweights, the Las Vegas Raiders and Panthers. Then lost three of their next four games against worthy competition, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. The only team they beat from that group of four was the Broncos, but since their narrow loss to the Cardinals four weeks ago, Jim Harbaugh’s squad has rolled to three straight wins.
Three wins, that is, against three more highly suspect teams. Their winning streak has been gained against the likes of the New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, a trio of squads who came into this week with a combined 7 and 21 win/loss mark.
The Bengals problems have come against stiffer competition. Among their six losses this season are two setbacks to the Baltimore Ravens and defeats at the hands of the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.
So, what does that leave us with tonight?
The Chargers are not doing it with mirrors, they have allowed the fewest points in the league this season. And, we all know, offense gets headlines and sells tickets, defense wins championships.
Bottom line, I’ll buy into the notion that this is a “must” game for the Bengals and they need a win to survive. But that doesn’t trump the best defense in the game as a sure thing … or even enough to suggest a wager.