After nine weeks of regular season play, only the Kansas City Chiefs have a perfect record … straight-up anyway.
In a season most would admit has not been the most dominating by Andy Reid’s two-time defending Super Bowl Champions, the Chiefs continue to win more with guile than clear edges over their opponents. Last Monday night was another example of the Chiefs ability to do what is necessary to get the win, downing the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime.
The Chiefs opened the season with a victory over the Baltimore Ravens when a would-be tying or winning touchdown pass by Lamar Jackson was overturned on replay when his receiver, tight end Isaiah Likely, was shown to have his toe out-of-bounds. The next week, against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium, a late pass interference call gave the Chiefs life and they turned that into a winning end of the game field goal to eke out a one-point win.
Only once this season has Kansas City won by more than 10 points, that was at home against a New Orleans Saints team that is currently on a seven-game losing streak. In a Monday night matchup, the Chiefs beat the Saints, 26-13.
The unblemished success of Kansas City this year is mostly credited to their stout defense. While Patrick Mahomes continues to be revered as the top quarterback in the game, his stats this year are pedestrian compared to past seasons. In Monday’s overtime win over the Buccaneers, Mahomes completed his first game this year without throwing an interception and his quarterback rating is below 90.
It seems the only thing the Chiefs know how to do is win, which is a pretty good attribute for a team looking to become the first in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
But, for their backers at the sportsbook windows, the Chiefs have not been overly kind. Half of their eight wins have lost against the point spread including not covering lines the past two weeks against the Las Vegas Raiders and Buccaneers. This week they play an AFC West foe, the Denver Broncos, and Kansas City is looking for their first point spread win against a division opponent. In addition to losing against the line two weeks ago in Las Vegas, the Los Angeles Chargers clipped them while getting 7½ points on the line and losing in Week Four action, 17-10.
Mind you, few general rules that apply to most teams are consistent with the Chiefs. They break rules like little kids break toys on Christmas morning. But there is a pattern in the NFL that when a team is on an extended win streak and continues to be favored on the point spread a straight-up loss is more likely to occur before a one-sided victory.
The Denver Broncos, under the direction of Seah Payton and the leadership on the field of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, offer the kind of pesty opponent perfectly poised to give the Chiefs all they can handle. Perhaps even their first straight-up loss of the year.
The Broncos have been a major surprise this year behind their rookie signal caller and that success has been anchored by a rock-solid defense. Last week, Denver took their five wins in eight decisions into Baltimore to meet a Ravens team with the same record. On our charts, the Jackson led Baltimore offense had all the advantages here by being challenged by the Broncos defense, coming off a loss and entering the game with the same record as their visitors. Those factors all proved to come to fruition as the Ravens blew the Broncos away, 41-10.
Now, a week later, the Broncos are coming off that humbling loss and playing a team that leads them by more than three games in their division race. In other words, there is no overconfidence for the young Broncos, and the Chiefs are looking to extend the only unbeaten streak in the league.
Last week’s one-sided loss by the Broncos, and the Chiefs routine narrow win, sets up perfect for an upset this Sunday in Kansas City.
Qoxhi Picks: Denver Broncos (+7½) over Kansas City Chiefs