Rookies and first-year players in the Pittsburgh Steelers organization are always caught off guard the first time their upcoming opponent is the Baltimore Ravens. Seemingly just getting into a pattern of how the coaching staff works, what days are dedicated to full contact and what days are utilized to install game plans, when the Ravens are next on Mike Tomlin's docket things are adjusted.
Full contact all week. Pads from the first day of workouts to Friday’s walkthrough.
“What is this?” One rookie asked recently when seeing his pads laid out in front of his locker. He was enlightened by a veteran Steeler, “It’s Ravens week.”
So, how has this extra attention to the Ravens worked out for Pittsburgh since these two long serving coaches, Tomlin with the Steelers and John Harbaugh on the Ravens sideline, met in this always critical AFC North Division showdown?
Tomlin joined the Steelers as head coach in 2007, Harbaugh the Ravens in 2008. In the 32 meetings between these two longtime NFL powerhouses the Steelers have the edge. They are 18-14 straight-up and 15-13-4 versus the point spread. They also come into tomorrow's game at Acrisure Stadium riding a three-game winning streak against their division rivals.
The more dominating stat between these two teams is the success of the underdog in this matchup. While getting points on the spread, the Steelers have accumulated a 11-2-3 record, while the Ravens getting points has resulted in Baltimore gaining an advantage with an 11-4-1 mark.
So, this is easy, right?
Take the dog when the Steelers and Ravens meet and laugh all the way to the bank. I mean, look, underdogs in this series since 2008 are 22-6-4 in generating successful trips to the payout window.
Not so fast, Maxwell.
It is not overall trends that dictate NFL results, but much more the unique factors driving the result on a particular day. For starters, the Steelers have won three straight games over Lamar Jackson and his Ravens, but last year they won on the road as a favorite on the final day of the NFL regular season.
The Steelers came into that game with only one win in four previous tries as a favorite on the Ravens home field, so why did they win last January?
Because of the unique circumstances that dictated that result.
The Ravens were locked into the top seed in the AFC playoffs before playing their final game last season, the Steelers needed the win to earn a Wild Card berth.
That unique situation heavily favored the Steelers, and they cashed that advantage with a 17-10 victory.
What is the unique situation that will dictate Sunday’s results in Pittsburgh?
The Steelers are ahead in the AFC North Division race, meaning with a win they could add space between them and the second place Ravens. The Steelers have played one less game than Baltimore this season and come into action with two losses and seven wins. The Ravens have an equal number of wins, but three losses.
Baltimore has beaten all but one of the good teams they have met this year, they lost by a toe to the Kansas City Chiefs on opening night but have dropped two difficult to understand contests against the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns.
The Steelers two losses have been suffered against the Indianapolis Colts and highly suspect Dallas Cowboys. Their one-point victory last Sunday over the Washington Commanders and their early season wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are their only wins against teams with winning records.
In other words, the Steelers success has come against inferior opposition white the Ravens have downed the Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders and beaten the Cincinnati Bengals twice.
Now they come into this game needing a win to overtake the first place Steelers. The Steelers want a win to extend their margin over the talented Ravens.
Need over want every time.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers