NFL 2024 Season - Week 7
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:
     
 
Landmine
by Dennis Ranahan

For the second straight week the National Football League will have a pair of games featured on Monday night. This week, the Miami Dolphins host the Tennessee Titans in a contest set to begin at 4:30 p.m. Pacific Time, and 45 minutes later the Detroit Lions welcome the Seattle Seahawks into Ford Field.

Here is what the early game looks like to me. Imagine you were taking the family on vacation and deciding what car to use. The two you find in your driveway both have liabilities. One has a flat and slipping transmission, the other you are not even sure is going to start.

That is what the two teams meeting at Hard Rock Stadium tonight appear like to me.

You want the Dolphins?

They are slight favorites and starting their fourth quarterback in the fourth week of the season. A year ago, the Dolphins entered the fourth week of their campaign on a three game winning streak and having just scored 70 points in a victory over the Denver Broncos.

This time, the Dolphins enter the fourth week with an anemic offense and a coach that went from the toast of the town to a hot seat that puts Mike McDaniel among the favorites to be the first coach fired this year. It’s not all the coach’s fault, the injury to starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in second week action, after he had engineered a comeback opening game win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, has derailed the Dolphins offense like a train without breaks in Ohio.

Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle were both on the Dolphins depth chart behind Tua when the season began, but after they both failed to avoid back-to-back losses, tonight McDaniel will look to improve his job security with Tyler Huntley. The undrafted five-year veteran out of Utah was signed by the Dolphins off the Baltimore Ravens practice squad on September 16.

And the Dolphins are favored tonight? Who are they playing, the Sisters of the Poor?

Pretty much. The Tennessee Titans are one of the two NFL teams without a win this year. The other is another AFC South Division squad, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost their fourth straight contest yesterday in Houston while surrendering a late lead to the Texans. It is a scenario the Jaguars also experienced in their opener when they handed the Dolphins their only win of the season with a late game collapse.

So, can Tennessee notch their first win tonight against a banged-up Dolphins squad?

Can the Dolphins even their record with two wins and two losses and drop the Titans to oh and four?

You get the early example; do you want the car that may not start on the one sure to give you problems down the road?

In the night’s second contest the competition is exponentially enhanced. The visiting Seattle Seahawks bring a perfect 3-0 mark into Ford Field while the Lions look to catch them with a third win tonight.

I got a huge problem with this game.

For the life of me I can’t understand why this point spread is moving down. The Lions opened as a 4½ point spread favorite and spent most the week at 3½ points before kicking up a half-point yesterday. On my football charts, I have the Lions as the better team with the worse record and that usually points to a win for the team with the lesser won/loss mark. If this line would have grown off the opening number, say go up to five, my indicators would have aligned.

But down?

It gives me the feeling somebody knows something I don’t. Which means this, I don’t want to line up with the majority laying less points and thinking I’m getting a bargain on the spread.

The books don’t offer bargains, they tempt the public with traps.

I’m not ready to take the Seahawks here, but no way am I going to step on a landmine planted by the books.