Okay, I couldn’t ask for a better spot to test my long held theory that a team that has a breakthrough campaign one year often follows that with a down year the following season. And, the second half of that theory, that after that down year following their breakthrough season, they rise in alignment with their actual talent level.
What is a breakthrough campaign? By my definition, it is when a team that has been mired in the depths of their division races suddenly advances to a postseason berth. The two most striking examples of quick rise teams are the 1981 San Francisco 49ers and 2001 New England Patriots. These two squads were cellar-dwellers in recent campaigns then won the Super Bowl in those two seasons.
Perhaps not coincidentally, they were led by a pair of quarterbacks that would go down in history as two of the best to ever line up behind center: Joe Montana and Tom Brady.
But, here is my point, the year after they led their franchises to their initial Super Bowl wins they missed the playoffs the following season. It would prove to be the only time Brady didn’t guide the Patriots to the playoffs in years he was healthy, which were all except 2008, when he was injured in first week action and missed the season.
In 1982, the NFL had suffered a player strike that limited the regular season to nine games and an expanded playoff field. But, not included in that expanded playoff field were the Montana led 49ers who finished the season with a losing record. Montana would guide San Francisco to four Super Bowl victories in his Hall of Fame career but couldn’t earn a playoff berth the year after Bill Walsh and company enjoyed their first significant success.
So, using that as my guide, I have long looked for teams that dramatically elevated their results one year to have an off-season the following year, and then after their too high expectations fell flat, return to form two years after their initial success.
Here is how this shakes down in current times.
The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the 2020 and 2021 seasons with the worst record in football. Those disappointing campaigns earned Jacksonville the top pick in the draft after each of those last place finishes. In the process, the Jaguars added what they hope to be a career franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a number of other blue-chip college talent on both sides of the ball.
In 2022, under new head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars bounced off back-to-back last place finishes with a playoff berth and victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Weekend.
High expectations entering 2023 were in opposition to our assessment that the Jaguars would suffer a down year after their initial success before having their talent reemerge when expectations and actual winning tradition were more in line. On cue, the Jaguars missed the playoffs last year and opened this season, according to this theory, poised for a big year.
On opening day in Miami, the Jaguars took a commanding lead over the Dolphins until late second half mistakes erased their advantage, and they eventually lost the game by a field goal. They haven’t even had an early good showing since. After losing to the Cleveland Browns at home in second week action, the Jaguars got blown out on the road last Monday night by the Buffalo Bills.
That doesn’t fit what we expected.
Meanwhile, this week the Jaguars head to Houston to meet a Texans team that rose from last place two years ago to a playoff berth last season while led by a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach. If ever, on our charts, a team was going to have expectations that would flatten their actual results it would be this year when DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud are looking for more success in their sophomore seasons.
I’m not sure anyone has noticed that the Texans have not covered a point spread yet this year, it certainly wouldn’t seem front-and-center when they are favored by a touchdown at home this Sunday after getting routed last week in Minnesota, 34-7.
So, here we have all the elements I’m looking for in my breakthrough, downfall and revival three-year pattern. The Texans in their downfall year and the Jaguars poised for an uptick.
With points on the uptick to enhance the proposition.
Qoxhi Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over Houston Texans