Last Monday night, the Atlanta Falcons went on a long final minute touchdown drive that was felt from Philadelphia to Las Vegas. Before Kurt Cousins completed five passes in the final minute-and-a-half of game clock, the Eagles were posted in Vegas as a 2½ point favorite for their upcoming game against the New Orleans Saints. At the same time, the Falcons were listed as a 4½ point underdog at home to the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week Three matchup.
After Cousins completed the drive that transformed a six-point deficit to a one-point win for the Falcons, the line in Vegas shifted from Philadelphia a 2½ point favorite to a 2½ point underdog the following week in the Big Easy. The Falcons also had their underdog role dropped a point moments after Cousins completed the Falcons comeback. Now that line has been shaved 1½ points from the opening number with Atlanta currently getting a field goal on the spread for their game against the undefeated defending Super Bowl Champions.
Wow.
What a drive.
But, is the line move warranted?
Did the Eagles really become five points less on the spread because they allowed a late lead to dissolve into a narrow loss? Are the Falcons, who lost to the Steelers in their opener, really only a three-point dog to the Chiefs?
Well, taking facts for what they are, the answer to those two questions is yes and yes.
Now, the more important question, do these line moves make either of these games a more attractive wager?
Yes.
Which one?
Philadelphia.
The Saints have scored the most points and allowed the fourth fewest in the league over the first two weeks of action. Their victories over the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys add up to the most lopsided points for and points against figure in the league, plus 62.
A team that is averaging 31 point victories over the first two weeks of a season is by most accounts a surprise home underdog in Week Three. But that is where the books pegged the opening line because that is a more accurate reflection of the perceived strength of the Eagles and Saints.
Now, how many people do you think would have jumped at a chance to get the Saints as a home team underdog? I suggest a big number, while also adding that I believe the books would have accepted all the bets on the Saints they could get with a Cheshire Cat smile on their faces.
If both teams came into this game with a pair of wins, the Eagles had downed the Green Bay Packers in their opener, and the Eagles would have been favored on the road the contest would have offered a slight edge to the Eagles. But, have the Eagles inspired off a loss, focused on the heels of defeat, and now getting points on the spread … well this is the stuff that creates an outstanding opportunity.
The Eagles loss actually increases their chance for a win this week, and the point spread makes the wager that much more attractive.
Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (+2½) over New Orleans Saints