Before the 2024 National Football League season kicked off three weeks ago, the New Orleans Saints were listed as an 80 to 1 long shot to Win Super Bowl LIX. Then, the season opened with Dennis Allen’s squad blowing away the Carolina Panthers, 47-10, and crushing the Dallas Cowboys in Texans, 44-19.
The talk around the league was that perhaps we just didn’t know how good this Saints squad led by quarterback Derek Carr was. The odds of them representing the National Football Conference in the Super Bowl dropped like a rock. In fact, the suddenly high regard for the Saints had them wagered up to a two-point favorite last week at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The talented New Orleans defense held the Eagles scoreless through three quarters last Sunday, then allowed 15 fourth quarter points enroute to a three-point loss, 15-12. Now New Orleans looks to rebound at Atlanta this Sunday against a much-improved Falcons squad.
There is a big difference between these two teams. Atlanta, with newly acquired quarterback Kirk Cousins and a talented defense, were shaved down to 22 to 1 on opening Super Bowl odds. They also had a season win total posted at 10 games in many outlets.
What does this mean after three weeks?
The Falcons, who have dropped two of three games, losing both their home contests to the Pittsburgh Steelers on opening day and the Kansas City Chiefs last week while sandwiching a narrow come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles between, are now poised to meet the Saints.
Do you see this?
Through three weeks the Saints have excelled above preseason projections, and the Falcons have disappointed their fans. But a home loss to the Steelers as a point spread favorite and narrow loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday night, is not exactly embarrassing setbacks. Their win over the Eagles on the road as an underdog is a lot more indicative of how good the Falcons really are.
As for the Saints, they blew it out their ears the first two weeks, were limited to one touchdown in their home loss to Philadelphia, and head for Atlanta getting a lot less points on the spread than they would need to make them the choice in this game.
Bottom line is this; the Falcons are the better team, at home and laying a short point spread. Add to those positive factors that the public is lining up on the visitors at nearly a 60% clip and you get one of the best plays of the week while taking a favorite on the spread with a worse won/loss record than their opponent.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (-2½) over New Orleans Saints