NFL 2024 Season - Week 12
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
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Week 12
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Best Show
by Dennis Ranahan

If it wasn’t my business, I would still be a huge fan of the National Football League. Each year they put on a reality show that far exceeds anything networks can contrive as survival tests in the wilderness. And, seemingly every week, they have a matchup or two that can grab the attention of fans of those teams or not.

This week, for example, we have a battle in historic Lambeau Field between the two leaders in the highly competitive National Football Conference North Division race, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Lions lead the division a half-game ahead of the Packers. The two teams have combined for a dozen wins in 15 decisions and still have two more talented teams right on their heels. The Minnesota Vikings are one game back in the standings and the Chicago Bears are just a game behind them.

Yep, the NFC North Division is the best division in football for a lot of reasons beginning with their win/loss record and ending with no bad teams in the grouping of four.

But the best team?

While many, for good reason, will still declare the Kansas City Chiefs the best team in football, having a perfect record and defending back-to-back Super Bowl wins, is a pretty good reason to think that. But, despite the Chiefs 7-0 mark this year while the Lions are a notch below that with six wins in seven decisions, many football followers will contend the Lions are the best team … they have blowout win after blowout win to advance that reasoning.

Okay, this is where I sojourn from being a fan to being a handicapper. My son, Kevin, who is slowly pushing his dad in directions unknown to the old man, has developed a chart that shows how teams that dominate the regular season don’t win Super Bowls. Behind closed doors we used to call it the Peyton Manning effect. When he was in charge of the Indianapolis Colts offense they used to roll to double-digit wins as regularly as someone adding fries to their hamburger order at McDonalds.

But, come playoff time, poof, the Cols dominance would get upset, usually in their first postseason game. Kevin took those facts, studied every Super Bowl winner and discovered that when a team moves up off, on his charts something he has chronicled as a positive, two times in a row, they fail in the playoffs. That reasoning lines up with my motivational factors that a team needs to have something to overcome to perform at their highest level.

Note, Manning won one Super Bowl with the Colts, and it happened in a season in which the Indianapolis rush defense ranked dead last in the league. In other words, something to overcome.

So, back to Detroit and Green Bay squaring off tomorrow at Lambeau. This is a battle between the two teams Kevin and I picked to win Super Bowl LIX before the season began. He has the Packers; I have the Lions. On Kevin’s charts, if the Lions win this game by double-digits they fall into the category that historically eliminates them from winning the Super Bowl … actually surviving their first playoff game.

But, if the Packers win on Sunday, well that reloads the Lions motivation and my Super Bowl pick may prove right. So, am I going to root for the Lions or Packers this week? Neither, because the only thing that matters to me is if the matchup generates a solid point spread play, which this one doesn’t.

Now, if you want to add an additional element to our family Super Bowl competition, know my wife, Kevin’s mom, picked the Chiefs.