If it wasn’t my business, I would still be a huge fan of the National Football League. Each year they put on a reality show that far exceeds anything networks can contrive as survival tests in the wilderness. And, seemingly every week, they have a matchup or two that can grab the attention of fans of those teams or not.
This week, for example, we have a battle in historic Lambeau Field between the two leaders in the highly competitive National Football Conference North Division race, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Lions lead the division a half-game ahead of the Packers. The two teams have combined for a dozen wins in 15 decisions and still have two more talented teams right on their heels. The Minnesota Vikings are one game back in the standings and the Chicago Bears are just a game behind them.
Yep, the NFC North Division is the best division in football for a lot of reasons beginning with their win/loss record and ending with no bad teams in the grouping of four.
But the best team?
While many, for good reason, will still declare the Kansas City Chiefs the best team in football, having a perfect record and defending back-to-back Super Bowl wins, is a pretty good reason to think that. But, despite the Chiefs 7-0 mark this year while the Lions are a notch below that with six wins in seven decisions, many football followers will contend the Lions are the best team … they have blowout win after blowout win to advance that reasoning.
Okay, this is where I sojourn from being a fan to being a handicapper. My son, Kevin, who is slowly pushing his dad in directions unknown to the old man, has developed a chart that shows how teams that dominate the regular season don’t win Super Bowls. Behind closed doors we used to call it the Peyton Manning effect. When he was in charge of the Indianapolis Colts offense they used to roll to double-digit wins as regularly as someone adding fries to their hamburger order at McDonalds.
But, come playoff time, poof, the Cols dominance would get upset, usually in their first postseason game. Kevin took those facts, studied every Super Bowl winner and discovered that when a team moves up off, on his charts something he has chronicled as a positive, two times in a row, they fail in the playoffs. That reasoning lines up with my motivational factors that a team needs to have something to overcome to perform at their highest level.
Note, Manning won one Super Bowl with the Colts, and it happened in a season in which the Indianapolis rush defense ranked dead last in the league. In other words, something to overcome.
So, back to Detroit and Green Bay squaring off tomorrow at Lambeau. This is a battle between the two teams Kevin and I picked to win Super Bowl LIX before the season began. He has the Packers; I have the Lions. On Kevin’s charts, if the Lions win this game by double-digits they fall into the category that historically eliminates them from winning the Super Bowl … actually surviving their first playoff game.
But, if the Packers win on Sunday, well that reloads the Lions motivation and my Super Bowl pick may prove right. So, am I going to root for the Lions or Packers this week? Neither, because the only thing that matters to me is if the matchup generates a solid point spread play, which this one doesn’t.
Now, if you want to add an additional element to our family Super Bowl competition, know my wife, Kevin’s mom, picked the Chiefs.