Only twice this century had the New York Giants met the Dallas Cowboys in a game they won the week before while Dallas had lost at least their prior two contests. Interestingly, both those games occurred in 2010, when the Cowboys met New York in the seventh and tenth weeks of the season.
When Dallas and New York battled in the seventh week that year, the Giants won as an underdog in Dallas, 41-35. After the Cowboys got crushed in the succeeding two weeks, against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers by scores of 34-17 and 45-7 respectively, they met the Giants again. This time, in New York, the 12½ point underdog visitors beat the Giants straight-up, 33-20.
Tonight, for the third time since the turn-of-the-century, the Giants and Cowboys meet with New York coming off a win and the Cowboys dropping their two most recent decisions. Most bettors figure the Cowboys off those losses are a lot better wager than taking the Giants at home getting 5½ point on the spread.
I can see their point, but it doesn’t mean I agree with them.
Are the Cowboys the team that opened on the road with a convincing win over the Cleveland Browns, or the team that has dropped back-to-back decisions to the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in front of their home fans? Dallas Quarterback Dak Prescott is as unreliable as a car with a weak battery hoping to kickover on a cold morning. With a rolling start, it can run fine, from a stop position it may call for a long walk.
Then, while we ponder who the real Cowboys are, we are stuck with another early season question, who are the Giants? They were blown out at MetLife Stadium in their opener by the Minnesota Vikings, 28-6, then handed rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels his first professional win in second week action, 21-18. Last week, the Giants got their first win of the season in Cleveland, beating the Browns, 21-15.
How do those results indicate the direction of New York this season?
Well, the loss to the Vikings may have looked horrible given the game went off at a near pick ‘em on the spread and the Giants lost by more than three touchdowns. But the last two weeks have not done anything but raised the expectations of the Vikings, they bounced off their opening victory with home wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.
Okay, we’ll give the Giants a pass on their opening loss, but how about that second week defeat to a rookie quarterback?
Turns out, as the Cincinnati Bengals learned last Monday night at Paycor Stadium, that this rookie for Dan Quinn’s Commanders might be very special. He put up 38 points to down the heavily favored home-standing Bengals while we note the Giants defense didn’t allow Daniels and company to crack the endzone in their three-point second week loss. The 21-18 Washington victory was by virtue of seven made field goals.
So, if we have the Giants better than we thought, and the Cowboys not as good as many assume, giving 5½ points with Dallas on the road tonight is not a good wagering spot.
So, take the Giants?
Well, that has liabilities also. What that would require, if the Giants were to win outright, is that after four weeks New York would be ahead of Dallas in the standings, two victories over one win. That doesn’t seem likely. If we then count only on the point spread, we need to factor in that 86% of NFL straight-up winners also cover the line.
Still, in this spot, the point spread for the road team is a bad bet, and the home team may not be good enough to take advantage. Which means this, some games are best left only for viewing purposes … like tonight.