NFL 2025 Season - Week 8
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 8
Grudge Match
NFL and Gambling World Cry Foul
High Seas
Race to Five
Struggling Playoff Teams
Argue This
DeMeco Team Due
Week 7
Weighing Wins
Addition by Subtraction
Sharp or Not
Spark the Fuse
Hocus Pocus
Boarding the Jets
Cushion Crunch
Hot Meet Stout
Pedestal Perch
Week 6
Tightening Races
Arrowhead or Hammer
Missing Signal Callers
Little Boys
Special Circumstances
Then and Now
Old Versus New
Dolphins to Titans
Week 5
More to Know
Dominance in Streaks
Two Back is Hot
Spike Side
41 is Up
Bounce Back
Deal with the Devil
Cool Your Jets
Sleep Walking
Week 4
Backup to Win
Cold and Hot
Not So Obvious
Early Start
Yes We Can
New Clues
Up is Down
Dooms Night
Dead Center
Week 3
That's Entertainment
Road Trip
Perfect and Imperfect
About Time
Better Bet
Quarterback Resurgence
Cruise Control
Look of a Champion
Sitting Duck
Week 2
No Respect
QB Rivalry
Inches Short
Kidding Aside
Coaching Advantage
Turf Toe Spike
Prime Opener
Solo Act
Early Returns
Week 1
NFC North Battle
Everybody is Right
Assumptions
Happy Ending
QB Swap
Beginning of the End
Too Easy
Road Cowboys
Choose Wisely
Schedule It
Season Win Totals
Super Bowl Pick
Credit Collision
Burn in Hell
Before Relevance
No Repeats
Home and Auto
So Close
Preseason 3
Cheshire Cat Grin
Reverse Records
Clear Choice
Moving Parts
Not Ready for Prime Time
Preseason 2
Success and Failure
Jury Out
Real Competition
Quarterback Rich
Worst to First
Time to Reload
Sweet Spot
Preseason Magic
Preseason 1
Two Up, Two Down
Book Bet
Gone Fishing
Smart Rats
Early Value
Streaky
Hall of Fame
Two Good Ones
Ups and Downs
Offseason
Cause and Effect
Looking Forward
Purdy Value
Business for Profits
     
 
Bad Idea
by Dennis Ranahan

EARLY ALERT: The game played in London between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears this Sunday morning that starts at 6:30 a.m. Pacific Time is simply too good of a point spread play to pass up. Therefore, if our Friday night numbers continue to show an edge on this game that warrants a rated money play, that choice will be posted on this site on Saturday morning. The early release will offer clients an opportunity to get down on the game prior to early Sunday start.

As for tonight’s game, between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, can you see the 49ers losing this game and falling two games back to their hosts in the NFC West Division standings?

Me neither.

But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen or that the advantage when the more than field goal on the point spread is factored in, doesn’t offer a slight edge with the home underdog tonight.

While it could have been predicted at the beginning of the season that this Thursday night prime time encounter could have been for first place in the NFC West, I don’t think many considered the possibility that San Francisco would fall to a 2 and 4 record with a loss. If that happens, and the Seahawks snap their two-game losing streak tonight, they will have both a two-game bulge in the standings over the 49ers and the early tiebreaker with a straight-up win in this heated NFC West series.

If the Seahawks were favored tonight, then winning would be a much more difficult task. If they saw the real possibility of pulling two games ahead of the 49ers then the motivation would be screwy for the home team and San Francisco would have a decisive edge to not fall two back.

But, despite their early season difficulties, the 49ers have only won one of their most recent four games, San Francisco comes into this contest with confidence they are going to win and catch the Seahawks in the standings.

Seems easy.

Seems logical.

How could it be any other way?

The Problem is, those three most recent statements are what swings the advantage to the home team’s favor. The eye of the tiger, the team that knows they have most to overcome, is the team at home getting points with a better record.

When we look at it that way, how could we back any side in this game other than taking the 3½ points on the spread and expect a close game that could go either way, but will likely end within a field goal?

I love the 49ers to win in this spot, but also respect that they are not the percentage side of the wager. To bet what you love over advanced intelligence is a real bad idea.

When all is considered, and because I do expect a straight-up 49ers win, my staff and I have come to the conclusion that the best bet tonight is none.