I was minding my own business at the post office. I was there to send in my property tax bill and buy Christmas stamps. In front of me was a guy that looked to be around my age, and a younger man in front of him. They were having a conversation about football and how this guy won last week with a bet on the Carolina Panthers over the Philadelphia Eagles.
For the record, the Eagles were two-touchdown favorites and won the game by six points, 22-16. Given I had the Panthers for my Qoxhi Picks clients too, I was most interested in what the boasting man in line said next.
“I always take 14 or more points in an NFL game. Win every year,” he said to the nodding fellow line stander like he knew what he was talking about.
I almost said something; glad I didn’t. But I shook my head, that kind of simple thinking is not how to find winners in the NFL and is also wrong. I didn’t have the exact stats to rattle off to this post office visitor, but I’ll offer them to you.
Since 2014, 80 National Football League games have included a favorite of 14 points or more. In those 80 games, the double-digit underdog is 7-73 straight-up and 36-41-3 against the point spread.
In other words, betting every NFL game getting 14 or more points on the spread is a losing proposition.
Tell the guy in front me in line.
No, instead I’ll just tell you. I must say again, I’m so glad I didn’t get into a conversation with anyone at the post office except the guy selling me Christmas stamps. I don’t like to debate any point without an understanding of the facts.
So, here are the facts for you.
There are two kinds of teams laying more than two touchdowns on the point spread. In the past two weeks we have had the opportunity to see both. The first is a team that has rolled through their opponents and meeting a team with a losing record that most think they will have no trouble beating.
That was the Eagles last week. Only thing is Philadelphia’s success both straight up and against the point spread was earned while they were playing a number of quality opponents and have another big game the following week on their schedule. And, their opponent, which last week at Lincoln Financial Field was the Carolina Panthers, is a team with a recent bad reputation not in alignment with their recent surge in play.
The Eagles came into last Sunday’s game riding an eight-game winning streak, had just beaten the Baltimore Ravens on their home field, and had the Pittsburgh Steelers next on their schedule. The game against the Panthers was a classic “sandwich” matchup, where the Eagles were more focused on their recent win and next opponent than “this week’s” game.
Another kind of two-touchdown favorite can be a quality team, off a loss, needing a win against an opponent on a trajectory that is almost certain to get their coach fired very soon.
That is the case with the Ravens on Sunday. They are favored by a ridiculous road point spread, 15 points, when they meet the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. In this game, the better team is off a stinging home loss with two weeks to prepare for this matchup against a Giants team that has only led in a game once, that for a brief period on Thanksgiving in Dallas, and never on the final score, since the fifth week of the season.
Now, the guy in line at the post office is going to likely be taking the Giants with the bloated line, and if I was able to inform him that home underdogs of two-touchdowns or more have a winning point spread record of 9-6-2 since 2014, I bet his confidence would go through the roof.
Until the game started anyway.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-15) over New York Giants