If ever a game set up motivationally for the home team to upset a division leader, it would seem so tonight when the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns have been an underdog since the game was first posted on Sunday night … but the line hasn’t moved off the 3½ point line.
So, this really is that good of a spot for the Browns. After all, they are coming off a road game they were favored in and lost by three touchdowns against a Steelers team that was held out of the endzone but beat their primary division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, by virtue of six field goals.
Off those two results, we have the wise guys and public on opposite sides of this game. The wise guys are keeping the line frozen where it is, and the public is showing up in huge numbers betting the road favorite and expecting an easy payout.
I am caught between.
You know my tendencies are to follow the motivation, but I have trouble backing the wise guys in this one. The Steelers are a tight unit with a head coach that will have a bust in Canton in the not-too-distant future. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, and he won’t this year either.
During the preseason it looked like Tomlin might have trouble winning his 18th consecutive season as head coach of the Steelers. He had a quarterback situation to sort out with a couple signal callers who had not posted winning records in either of their previous stops before he put them in Pittsburgh yellow and black. Russell Wilson had diminished his star rating after moving from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos. Justin Fields was just another signal caller the Chicago Bears spent a first round draft choice on that didn’t work out.
Who started this season for the Steelers was not decided by the play on the field, but due to an injury suffered by Wilson that gifted the job to Fields.
After six games this season, the Fields led Steelers were atop the AFC North Division race with four wins and yet, Tomlin, decided to then change quarterbacks. The decision brought on a slew of criticism of the Steelers top man, but Tomlin’s success has never been pinned to doing what his critics wanted.
Since the move to Wilson, the Steelers haven’t lost a game. That includes a hard-fought first place extending victory last week over the Ravens without the benefit of Pittsburgh scoring a touchdown.
Oh yeah, in addition to the solid quarterback play, the key to Pittsburgh success is a rock-solid defense led by the Watt brother still playing the game, T.J.
But tonight, after winning as an underdog at home without the benefit of a touchdown and now giving points on the road against a division opponent is a horrible spot for Tomlin and company.
That is why the wise guys are riding with the home team tonight.
Me, not so much.
I hate to surrender to talent over motivation, but we are talking about a two-win team with the Browns who found a way to lose by three touchdowns last week when a number of factors favored them.
I’m just not sure the Browns can have enough factors favoring them to make them a good bet despite their one shining moment this year when they upset Baltimore while a home underdog on the point spread. Their only other win this season was a second week conquest in Jacksonville over an equally pitiful team, the Jaguars.
The wise guys are walking the plank tonight. If they win, I’ll know why, but if they lose, I’m not going down with them.