With winter games played outdoors in Philadelphia and Kansas City, we could have expected weather as bad as last week’s Divisional Round. Instead, we get no precipitation at either site, no wind factor to inhibit passing games and temperatures that wouldn’t cancel an outdoor kids' birthday party.
If Washington beats the Philadelphia Eagles today, we could have a Super Bowl rematch. The Washington Redskins beat the Buffalo Bills to complete the 1991 season in Super Bowl XXVI.
If the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Bills today, we could have a Super Bowl rematch. Two years ago the Chiefs downed Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII.
A majority of the bettors going to the window today to wager on the National Football League Championship Games are looking at the underdogs. The visiting Bills are getting more action than the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and the upstart Washington Commanders are getting almost three of every four wagers bet on their game to beat the home standing Eagles.
Why the Commanders?
Their quarterback, rookie Jayden Daniels. There is more buzz around this first year signal caller than a hive hit with a stick. The Commanders have consistently ended games with heroics from the young field general. He has a composure to lead his team to victory that belies his youth. The win over the Chicago Bears in October on a Hail Mary may have included a stroke of luck, but the drives he engineered in recent weeks to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to open the playoffs, his overtime drive to down the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17 to clinch a playoff berth or his last second heroics five weeks ago to complete a come-from-behind win over the Eagles had nothing to do with luck.
Skill, poise and a winning edge were the factors that provided those wins for the Commanders.
You can’t blame the public for being enamored with the kid.
But do you know who is not betting on Daniels today?
The books.
Even though the Commanders are getting a significant edge in the wagers, the books have tossed point spread candy to the bettors to further encourage their action. The opening line on the Eagles/Commanders matchup had Philadelphia favored by 4½ points. The line has grown ever since while reaching six or more during the week without ever being moved back down based on the action on Washington.
When I handicapped this matchup based on talent alone, the Eagles had a heavy lean. The spread could have been considered a concern, after all, in the past 30 years in this round of the NFL playoffs home favorites are 34-15 straight-up but only 24-25 against the point spread. Favorites of six to eight points, the range the Eagles are in today, are 11-5 straight-up and 8-8 versus the point spread.
A favorite that is challenged has a huge advantage over a chalk that thinks their talent is enough to carry the day. The Detroit Lions thought their talent was enough last week, and they lost by two touchdowns. The Eagles are not only on full alert, but they get a motivational boost based on their loss to the Commanders last month.
So, we have a clear choice in this one. We can follow the public and root for Daniels or take the edge the books want on their side and collect after the game.
Yep, I think we are in store for a Super Bowl rematch, and I think that contest in two weeks will be between the Chiefs and Eagles.