Sometimes the decision comes down to a bad line or a bad pick.
That is what we have today when the National Football League opens their final regular season week with 18 teams vying for the 14 postseason playoff dates. A dozen teams are locked into the postseason, which leaves six teams looking to land the final two playoff spots.
The National Football Conference is easy, six teams are in the playoffs and either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South and enter the field. The Buccaneers clinch their division with a win at home over the New Orleans Saints. If they fail in that attempt, the Falcons can win their division with a win over the Carolina Panthers.
The American Football Conference is not that much more complicated. The Denver Broncos need to win at home over the Kansas City Chiefs to land a playoff date. If they fail, either the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals get the final playoff berth in the AFC with a win. The Dolphins only need a victory coupled with a Broncos loss, the Bengals would need both a win and losses by both Denver and Miami.
The Bengals are meeting the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road and Mike Tomlin’s squad is looking to avoid a four-game losing streak entering the postseason. If they win and the Ravens are upset by the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers win the AFC North Division. With a loss, or a Ravens win, the Steelers enter the postseason as a Wild Card.
Does that mean the Bengals have the edge today when they meet the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium? If the Steelers had nothing to play for and the Bengals were looking to keep their playoff hopes alive the edge would swing towards the visitors. But the Steelers do have something to play for, while assured a postseason date they not only win the division if Baltimore loses but will improve their playoff seed with a victory. A Pittsburgh loss and win by the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday drops the Steelers to the sixth seed, with a win over the Bengals the Steelers are assured no less than a fifth seed.
And then there's Steelers pride. After three straight losses the Steelers are looking to regroup before entering the playoffs while the Bengals have failed in every chance they had this season to win a key game to hold their own fate. Last week, they needed overtime at home to get by the Denver Broncos to keep even a flicker of a playoff berth in play.
There is talk of Cincinnati Quarterback Joe Burrow being a strong candidate for Most Valuable Player.
Really?
Patrick Mahomes leads his defending Chiefs to the best record in football and doesn’t even earn a spot on the Pro Bowl roster and Burrow is going to get MVP in a losing year?
What is an MVP?
If it’s not generating wins, then I suggest the award is bogus.
I don’t think Burrow is going to win it, in all likelihood it is going to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, and if you need a third candidate in front of Burrow my choice would be Saquon Barkley.
Any chance of Burrow getting the MVP will be buried today in Pittsburgh when the Steelers upset the Bengals. And for the game with a bad line or bad pick, I’ll take the better team and lay the monster number.
One must always remember that the books job is to lure bettors to the wrong side of a proposition. They’ve done it on Saturday while getting just as many wagers on the Cleveland Browns as the Baltimore Ravens.
I expect to beat a bad line with Jackson and company in a game Baltimore needs to win their division.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-20) over Cleveland Browns