The most successful coaches who are brothers have again led their teams into the National Football League postseason. This time, they won’t be meeting in the Super Bowl, like they did to complete the 2012 season, but both are favored to advance to the Divisional Round when they open their postseasons on Saturday.
John and Jim Harbaugh won’t be meeting in the Super Bowl this year because this time they are both coaching American Football Conference squads. In 2012, John was with the Baltimore Ravens but his older brother, Jim, guided the National Football Conference San Francisco 49ers.
This time, John is still running the show in Baltimore, but after a successful run at the college level, he guided the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship last year, Jim returned to the NFL while taking over the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a welcomed relief for the Chargers, who seemed to have the talent to advance deep in the playoffs in recent seasons but not the coaching to get them over the hump.
In fact, the highly touted Chargers quarterback, Justin Herbert, is still looking for his first postseason win in his fifth pro season. In his only playoff game, his Chargers surrendered a huge second half lead two years ago and lost on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Not only is Herbert one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but his team also allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season.
A seemingly unbeatable combination when Los Angeles travels to Houston to meet the Texans in the first of three NFL games scheduled for Saturday:
The bettors think so, the road Chargers are three-point favorites on the point spread and have gotten the highest percentage of wagers on their side. Nearly three of every four bets made on this game are taking the road favorites.
Not me.
One of the most difficult things for a team to do is to have a successful season after they rise from last place to the playoffs and then are expected to have another good year. Seldom happens. What happens to a team that enjoys a huge jump in wins one season is that expectations the following year almost always exceed their actual talent level and flatten their motivation. On the scale of talent versus expectations, the formula routinely works against the team following a jump up in results.
The Texans were in that season this year after jumping to the playoffs last season behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Texans weren’t as good this season as they were in 2023, but they were good enough to win the AFC South Division over three teams that struggled, the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Because they were not pushed in their division race, the Texans coasted in with ten wins and a season record two games better than second place Indianapolis.
The Texans talent is not the concern, it is the motivation following last season’s success. Now, as a home underdog against a Chargers team making their second playoff appearance behind Herbert, the motivation swings to the home underdogs.
I don’t think the Texans are going to go deep into the playoffs this year, but win an opening game at home over the favored Chargers … that I like.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers