I often find the best picks are the same ones that have a reason that prompt a lot of people to say, “You can’t bet that.”
This season a couple clear examples of that show up. Earlier this season the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs were underdogs in Buffalo when they met the Bills on November 17th. The story that day was “you can’t” bet against the Chiefs getting points given they are undefeated.
Yes we can.
Yes we did.
Bills win and cover the 2½ point line, 30-21.
Last Sunday, the Denver Broncos were in Buffalo to play the Bills and getting more than a touchdown on the spread. “You can’t” bet against the Broncos getting those points given they have lost only one game this season by more than a touchdown.
Yes we can.
Yes we did.
Bills win and cover the 7½ point line, 31-7.
This week, we have another “you can’t” game when the Bills host the Baltimore Ravens tonight to complete the Divisional Playoff schedule.
The Buffalo Bills haven’t lost at home this year, so “you can’t” bet against them at Highmark Stadium while they are underdogs on the spread.
Yes we can.
Yes we will.
We are taking the Ravens giving the one point on the line because right now, based on the play over the past ten weeks, the Ravens are the best team in football. Their defense over that period of time ranks first in most categories, and their offense ranks first in every category.
This Ravens team reminds me a lot of the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70’s. They kept showing up in situations that seemed tough to overcome and then had their talent dictate the result. Even in Super Bowl XIV, when they were saddled with a bloated line versus the Los Angeles Rams, they scored a couple late touchdowns to not only win the game but cover the ridiculously high 11½ point spread, 31-19. In that Super Bowl, it was Franco Harris powering into the endzone late to advance the Steelers lead past the bloated line.
Two weeks ago, the Ravens were favored by 20 points over the Cleveland Browns … a ridiculously high point spread for an NFL game. Late in the contest, with the Ravens leading by 17, Derek Henry broke loose and ran up the left sideline and into the endzone for a touchdown that eclipsed the bloated line, 35-10.
Been here, done that.
The Bills haven’t lost a game at home this season, that won’t mean too much today if the Ravens go in and capture the victory on the road.
Which, by the way, they will.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-1) over Buffalo Bills