Two rookie quarterbacks advanced to the playoffs this year. Last week, one won and one lost. The two quarterbacks were Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos and Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders. Nix and the Broncos got swamped in Buffalo, 31-7, Daniels and the Commanders survived a close battle in Tampa, 23-20.
What does that all mean?
Well, it means that since 1976, 29 rookie quarterbacks have started for their teams in the postseason and a dozen of them have won their first game. In their second game? Well, the percentages drop dramatically with only three of 11 winning in the Divisional Round. As for Championship Games, the stat drops to zero. Three rookies led their teams to conference championship games and all lost … none guided their squads to a Super Bowl.
So just how special is Washington’s field general?
Daniels has impressed all season long, has a maturity that belies his status as a rookie, can run the ball but doesn’t give up keeping pass options open when his protection breaks down. In the second of today’s two games, Daniels leads his Commanders into Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. Detroit has suffered a number of key injuries to their defense, which should open some opportunities for the young slinger from D.C.
Enough to win, or at least stay within a ten-point spread, is highly debatable. But enough of a concern to both keep me off backing the Lions prolific offense in this spot or giving Daniels that many points on the spread.
We start the day in Kansas City, where we get what we want.
I have a rule on top picks that perform exactly as we wanted one week that come back the following week in a tough spot. That is, we view them like a tea bag, dental floss, Q-Tip, movie ticket or get-away-car … that is, use once and discard.
There is a reason for this, when a team has a perfect motivational setup and takes full advantage, like the Houston Texans did last week in their home win over the Los Angeles Chargers, they are given credit like their team dominated the previous opponent instead of the situation.
Before they beat the Chargers last week, more than 75% of the bettors were willing to lay three points for the opportunity to bank on Jim Harbaugh’s squad. Rex Ryan made a complete ass of himself, not the first or last time, when he predicted on a pregame show that the Chargers win would come easy over the Texans. “It is like a bye week for Harbaugh’s boys,” Ryan said while expecting a Chargers triumph.
Really? Not so much: Texans won by 20 points, 32-12.
Off that victory a number of people are giving the Texans a good shot at upsetting the Chiefs, or at least staying within the generous point spread.
Not a good idea I suggest.
The Texans victory last week was gained while the world was against them, and they were playing a Chargers team with a quarterback that has never won a postseason game. Yet, because they won that game in convincing fashion, the world now thinks they are a team to challenge a quarterback that wins postseason games at a higher clip than any signal caller in history, Patrick Mahomes.
In 2024, the Chiefs offense has not been the dynamic group that has in recent seasons run away from opponents. But their defense has been among the best in football and the reason they won more games than any other American Football Conference team.
And then there is this week, against Houston, when the Chiefs offense is inspired and poised to return to Mahomes' standards, and a defense ... enough.
Step one to their three-peat is clear sailing for Andy Reid’s squad.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) over Houston Texans