NFL 2024 Season - PS3
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
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Conference Championships
Cold Reality
Three and One
Divisional Playoffs
Winter Wonderland
Yes We Can
Getting Better
Three-Peat Begins
Correction
Challenge Accepted
Wild Card Weekend
Early Celebration
QB matchup
Starting and Ending Spots
Wild Card Trend
What to Like
Rookie Quarterbacks
Broken Fever
That's That
Week 18
Checking the Boxes
Needs and Wants
Four and Out
One or the Other
Point Spread Clouds
Fix It
Hollow Revenge
To Win or Not to Win
Week 17
All Knowing
Complicated Made Simple
Advanced Calculus
Glow Dimmed
Brink of Elimination
Game of Survival
Pleading for the Fifth
Need over Nothing
Christmas Grinch
Week 16
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Three-Peat Begins
by Dennis Ranahan

Two rookie quarterbacks advanced to the playoffs this year. Last week, one won and one lost. The two quarterbacks were Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos and Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders. Nix and the Broncos got swamped in Buffalo, 31-7, Daniels and the Commanders survived a close battle in Tampa, 23-20.

What does that all mean?

Well, it means that since 1976, 29 rookie quarterbacks have started for their teams in the postseason and a dozen of them have won their first game. In their second game? Well, the percentages drop dramatically with only three of 11 winning in the Divisional Round. As for Championship Games, the stat drops to zero. Three rookies led their teams to conference championship games and all lost … none guided their squads to a Super Bowl.

So just how special is Washington’s field general?

Daniels has impressed all season long, has a maturity that belies his status as a rookie, can run the ball but doesn’t give up keeping pass options open when his protection breaks down. In the second of today’s two games, Daniels leads his Commanders into Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. Detroit has suffered a number of key injuries to their defense, which should open some opportunities for the young slinger from D.C.

Enough to win, or at least stay within a ten-point spread, is highly debatable. But enough of a concern to both keep me off backing the Lions prolific offense in this spot or giving Daniels that many points on the spread.

We start the day in Kansas City, where we get what we want.

I have a rule on top picks that perform exactly as we wanted one week that come back the following week in a tough spot. That is, we view them like a tea bag, dental floss, Q-Tip, movie ticket or get-away-car … that is, use once and discard.

There is a reason for this, when a team has a perfect motivational setup and takes full advantage, like the Houston Texans did last week in their home win over the Los Angeles Chargers, they are given credit like their team dominated the previous opponent instead of the situation.

Before they beat the Chargers last week, more than 75% of the bettors were willing to lay three points for the opportunity to bank on Jim Harbaugh’s squad. Rex Ryan made a complete ass of himself, not the first or last time, when he predicted on a pregame show that the Chargers win would come easy over the Texans. “It is like a bye week for Harbaugh’s boys,” Ryan said while expecting a Chargers triumph.

Really? Not so much: Texans won by 20 points, 32-12.

Off that victory a number of people are giving the Texans a good shot at upsetting the Chiefs, or at least staying within the generous point spread.

Not a good idea I suggest.

The Texans victory last week was gained while the world was against them, and they were playing a Chargers team with a quarterback that has never won a postseason game. Yet, because they won that game in convincing fashion, the world now thinks they are a team to challenge a quarterback that wins postseason games at a higher clip than any signal caller in history, Patrick Mahomes.

In 2024, the Chiefs offense has not been the dynamic group that has in recent seasons run away from opponents. But their defense has been among the best in football and the reason they won more games than any other American Football Conference team.

And then there is this week, against Houston, when the Chiefs offense is inspired and poised to return to Mahomes' standards, and a defense ... enough.

Step one to their three-peat is clear sailing for Andy Reid’s squad.

Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) over Houston Texans