I hate making mistakes.
I take it out on myself sometimes with demonstrative expressions of dislike against my very being.
Know what’s worse than making a mistake?
Not learning from it.
In 1984, the San Francisco 49ers hosted the New York Giants in the second round of the National Football League playoffs. The Niners were a special team and would go on to win the Super Bowl that year in a big way over the Miami Dolphins. That was Super Bowl XIX, the only Roman Numeral game Dan Marino participated in and a game won by the 49ers, 38-16.
I had no motivational advantages for that playoff game for the 49ers on their way to a Super Bowl win, but was confident they would beat the Giants and laid the twelve points for the opportunity to root for Joe Montana and company.
The 49ers did win … just not by enough.
I sat there that day watching San Francisco totally control the action without any need to pour it on against Bill Parcells’ team. Their talent was enough to rule the day, but without a fear of the Giants they appeared to have no need to pour it on while coasting to an 11-point win, 21-10. Not good enough to win the wager while I advised clients to lay 12 points.
Since I opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, there have been 59 games during this round of the NFL playoffs where the home team has been favored by eight points or more. In those games, the home team is 45-14 straight-up, but against the point spread, the results are split down the middle with a record of 29-29-1. In other words, while the home favorites have a 76% chance of winning the game, their point spread result is shaved 26%.
Is this simply a wager that the favorite and underdog is a 50/50 proposition with the spread?
No.
This is a wager that captures what I fell for in 1984, that is when a team is so good, so clearly on their way to a win, they need not blow it out their ears. It was probably better to prepare the 49ers for what was to come in 1984 that Bill Walsh didn’t wreak havoc on the Giants but simply methodically coasted to a win. When a team is that good, like the 49ers were that year and the Detroit Lions are this season, rolling up the score is not necessary.
More important for a team headed to a championship is to play within themselves, control the action and win the game without any unnecessary fireworks. It better prepares them for the games to follow.
When the Lions host the Washington Commanders on Saturday do you think they are overly concerned about losing the game?
I think not.
Do they have a spike in their motivation that would propel them to a big score?
If I am to take a lesson from 1984, the answer is no.
I made a mistake 40 years ago, but hopefully learning from it will reap rewards this weekend.
Qoxhi Picks: Washington Commanders (+10) over Detroit Lions