Before the most anticipated quarterback matchup was Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen, it was Mahomes versus Tom Brady. The two dynamic field generals squared off six times against each other with each quarterback leading his team to three wins.
While leading the New England Patriots, Brady got the better of Mahomes in a pair of games played in 2018. In two high scoring affairs, Brady outdueled his young opponent at Gillette Stadium in October, 43-40, then got the better of Mahomes and the Chiefs in a fiercely contested AFC Championship Game in overtime, 37-31.
The following season, Mahomes got his first win over Brady in a regular season game played in Foxboro, 23-16.
The two current and future Hall of Fame Quarterbacks also tangled three times with Brady a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In a pair of regular season games, Mahomes got victories in 2020 and 2022, but Brady downed Mahomes and his Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, 31-9.
Add it all up, and we find that Mahomes versus Brady matchups resulted in each quarterback leading their team to three wins against three setbacks. But, in the postseason, it was Brady over Mahomes two games to none.
We find a similar pattern when Mahomes is battling Allen. In the regular season, including a win earlier this season, Allen has led his Bills to four wins in five starts against Mahomes and his Chiefs. But, in the playoffs, Mahomes has had the advantage with three wins against no defeats.
Again, look at the similarities, Brady never lost to Mahomes in the postseason, and Allen has never beaten Mahomes in the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen this week. While the Chiefs had a better regular season record, hence they get to host this week’s title game, the Bills have been more impressive in their victories this season. Their 13 regular season wins include a 30-21 triumph over Kansas City at Highmark Stadium in November.
Allen is having a career year; he is the only player in the league with a chance to grab the Most Valuable Player Award away from Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Mahomes has statistically had his worst season since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018. His worst year statistically, yet his team compiled their best record during his seven-year run.
How does this equate?
Two major reasons. First, the Chiefs defense has been special this year, always seemingly making the big play when it counts most whether a stop on a fourth down try or blocking a field goal to preserve a victory. Second, the Chiefs have an overall team focus and skill level that makes all the necessary plays that don’t always show up on the stat sheet. In simple terms, they know how to win.
Finally, in their bid to become the first team in NFL history to win three Super Bowls in a row, the Chiefs are at home against a team that pinned them with their only meaningful loss of the season (KC also lost to Denver to complete the season in a game that meant nothing to them and a playoff berth for the Broncos). Last week, the Bills were playing a Ravens team that had tagged them with a 35-10 loss earlier this season, which was a motivator for the Bills on the revenge scale. This week, the revenge factor goes with the home standing Chiefs.
The first seven NFL teams that played a season in search of a third straight Super Bowl didn’t advance to the final leg of the competition for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Four of them did advance to their conference title game, like the Chiefs this week, and all lost in this round of the playoffs.
Does that swing the edge to the Bills in this one?
It doesn’t make up for the better defense, at home with Mahomes.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-1½) over Buffalo Bills