There are periods of times in division opponents' histories in the National Football League when one team just dominates an opponent. Most of these times when one team wins ten, eleven, twelve or more games in a row from a nearly like number of games can be attributed to a superior squad facing a division weakling.
The Miami Dolphins have the longest winning streak against a division opponent. They beat the Buffalo Bills 20 straight times in the 70’s. In the 90’s, the San Francisco 49ers pinned the St. Louis Rams with 17 straight losses and ten years later the New England Patriots dominated the Buffalo Bills 15 times in a row.
While those three examples show superior teams, all the winning squads won super bowls during their dominant run against division opponents, sometimes a streak is less explainable. For instance, the Pittsburgh Steelers won seven of eight games over the Baltimore Ravens entering this season. Then, in Week 11, added an eighth win in nine games with a 18-16 victory. That win this season ran the Steelers point spread mark since 2020 over their AFC North Division rivals to seven wins in nine decisions.
That last Steelers win also came in a most unusual fashion. The Ravens had more yards rushing and more yards passing but lost the game while twice fumbling away the ball. They also saw the most accurate kicker in NFL history, Jason Tucker, miss two field goals and Baltimore fail on a two-point conversion attempt late in the game in an effort to tie the score.
Now some might say that is just more evidence of Mike Tomlin’s mastery over Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh. I see it differently. I have chronicled for half-a-century that when teams push win or losing streaks beyond normal limits, particularly when talent isn’t a major factor, there is a snapback that balances the scales.
Case in point, based on their 8-1 mark against the Ravens most handicappers took Pittsburgh getting a touchdown on the spread over the Ravens three weeks ago when they met in a Saturday game in Baltimore.
Not me.
I deduced that the Steelers narrow win earlier this season was the end of their run against Lamar Jackson and company. I took a Ravens team laying more points than they had won a game over the Steelers this decade and watched Baltimore roll to a convincing 34-17 win. Now these two teams meet again this season, in their third matchup the Steeles are getting even more points on the line, Baltimore is favored by double-digits.
History would cause many to give a second look the Steelers way, not me. The series of close losses suffered by Baltimore against their division rivals has been broken. Like the breaking of a fever that indicates a suffering patient is about to make a strong recovery, the Ravens, a far superior team to the current Steelers, are about to go on their own roll over their longtime rivals.
How many points are the Ravens going to beat the Steelers by this Saturday night?
More than the books can post on the spread.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-10) over Pittsburgh Steelers