Since 1976, 27 National Football League rookies have opened the postseason at quarterback for their team. Eleven won that first game, 16 lost, and of the 11 that advanced to the Divisional Round three led their teams to their conference championship games.
None made it to the Super Bowl.
This season, two rookies have led their teams to the postseason, and both played the full season for their squads. In Washington, second-round draft pick Jayden Daniels completed his rookie season to set not only rookie records but passing completion percentages that matched the best of any quarterback all-time.
Joe Burrow has the best completion percentage, 68.6, for an NFL quarterback with a minimum of 1500 career attempts. In his rookie season, Daniels started all 17 games for the Commanders and had a completion percentage of 69% on 480 passes. On Sunday, Daniels takes his stellar rookie stats on the road to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and match skills against Tampa Bay Quarterback Baker Mayfield. The one-time first pick in the draft by the Cleveland Browns had one of his best seasons this year while leading the Buccaneers to the NFC South Division title.
This year, the NFL opening playoff round features two rookie quarterbacks leading their teams into the playoffs. In addition to Daniel’s success in Washington, Bo Nix led the Denver Broncos to a Wild Card berth with Denver. Nix and Daniels are unique rookies, both show maturity on the field that belies their rookie status, and their experience has been gained while playing for five college seasons. The covid year extended both of these athletes' eligibility. Their age is also not that of a typical rookie. Nix turns 25 years old next month and Daniels celebrated his 24th birthday last month.
The maturity and the fact that both Daniels and Nix played the entire season for their teams gives them a huge advantage over a rookie that might have been forced into action because of an injury to their teams’ veteran starter. The last five rookie starters who replaced the opening day starter due to injuries, are 1-4 straight-up in their postseason debut. The lone winner from this group was Brock Purdy, who led the 49ers to wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys before being injured and knocked out of the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The fact that rookie quarterbacks have not gotten totally overwhelmed in their first postseason game is a disappointment to me. I was hoping they were like 3-24 or something in their 27 games. The fact that they won 11 while losing only 16 gives them a better shot, them being Nix and Daniels this week, than I would have thought.
If rookies making their first playoff appearance got overwhelmed, I could have had more clear criteria to pick the Buccaneers over the Commanders and Bills over the Broncos. As is, the rookie factor, particularly these two rookies who have played so well and mature for their brief time in the league, is not a reason to dismiss their team’s chances.
We’ll have to rely on other factors in isolating point spread winners … and those we expect to find before the games kickoff on Saturday.