If a National Football League team is going to advance to their conference championship game, it is a good bet they have a topflight quarterback. Take the quartet of signal callers who will be in action this Sunday when the NFL determines who will vie for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LIX: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and rookie Jayden Daniels.
Before the season began, three of those field generals could have been predicted, but the fourth was a longshot before the season began. Daniels becomes only the fourth rookie since the 1970 merger between the American and National Football Leagues to lead his team to a conference championship game.
All the rookies who guided their teams to their conference title games were underdogs on the road. The first rookie to start for his team in a Championship Game was Joe Flacco in 2008, and his Baltimore Ravens team was beaten in Pittsburgh By the Steelers, 23-14. A wide enough margin to cover the six-point spread.
The following season, Mark Sanchez got the New York Jets to the title game against the Indianapolis Colts, and he was outdueled in the AFC Championship Game by Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts. The Jets were 8½ point underdogs and lost the game by 13 points, 30-17.
Two years ago, Brock Purdy, who had taken over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo early in December, had his unbeaten string snapped in the NFC Championship Game by the Philadelphia Eagles, 31-7. The 49ers were a 2½ point underdog in Philadelphia, and there is an asterisk with that result. Purdy was injured early in the game and still forced back when backup Josh Johnson was injured and Purdy, who could not throw, was forced into a disappointing contest of handoffs and getting crushed.
But there you have it. Twenty-nine rookies have started the playoffs for NFL teams, 17 lost in the Wild Card Round, another eight were eliminated in the Divisional Round and none advanced to the Super Bowl.
Like those odds?
Like the points with the Washington Commanders this week?
If either of those factors prove a winner for Daniels and his Washington squad this week it will be a first. But some say Daniels is just the guy to get that first … after all he just put up 45 points in Detroit to knock off the NFC top seed Lions by two touchdowns.
Well, not really.
Yes, the Commanders beat the Lions by a 45-31 score, but it was more a case of the Lions beating the Lions. This is a Detroit team that has never been to a Super Bowl and playing with a squad that had more defensive injuries than any team in the league this season. They were also coming off an emotional last day of the season victory over the Minnesota Vikings that clinched the top seed for Dan Campbell’s squad.
Then they played the Commanders with a line that opened with Washington a double-digit underdog and closed while giving more than a touchdown.
The Commanders were playing, as they say, with house money. The Lions turned the ball over five times to pretty much hand the Commanders their lopsided victory. In most NFL games, the better team, which we would still count the Lions to be against the Commanders, dictate the result. If a good team plays up to their highest standards, they win. If they don’t, they are likely to get upset.
Did the Commanders win last week? It was much more a case of the Lions losing.
This Sunday, in Philadelphia, the Commanders are not challenging a team unfamiliar with playoff football but rather an Eagles team that played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are at home, poised to win, and don’t have any emotional draining victories that got them to this week’s title game.
The Commanders, on the other hand, did just have a huge road win and now are gaining confidence behind their special rookie quarterback … who is in a spot no rookie has ever conquered.
Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Washington Commanders