Sometimes an event can be interpreted in entirely different ways. Take for example how a colleague I respect on the east coast that I consult with weekly on National Football League games responded last week when I told him that the Detroit Lions over the Minnesota Vikings was my top pick of the week.
“Oh, didn’t you see the celebration last week after they beat the Green Bay Packers when they hoisted their quarterback in the locker room? This team is just too much together for me to bet against them.”
Yes, I saw the celebration in the locker room after capturing their 14th regular season win. It was over the top, the kind of exuberance better left for when the job is done. In fact, it was that very celebration that contributed to me liking the Lions when Minnesota and Detroit closed out the regular season.
The lesson of avoiding celebrations too early was driven home to me by a guy that won seven Super Bowls, Tom Brady. In January 2021, Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers had just upset Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game. When Brady came into the winning locker room he found a rookie offensive lineman with tears in his eyes in the midst of a demonstrative celebration.
“What the fuck are you doing,” Brady reprimanded his teammate. “We’re not done. We’ve got another game. Shut the fuck up.”
The rookie shut down his joy over the recent win and began the process of preparing for the next game … which would result in a Super Bowl victory over Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.
There was no shutdown voice on what was next in the Vikings locker room two weeks ago, and they allowed a possible top seed playoff berth to drop to fifth with their 31-9 loss to the Lions at Ford Field. Now, they take their better regular season record on the road to battle the Los Angeles Rams tonight.
This is a most interesting matchup.
The opening point spread on this game had the Vikings favored by 2½ points over the home standing Rams. Then the game had to be shifted from SoFi Stadium to Arizona in response to the tragic fires still burning in Southern California.
Before the move was announced, the line on the Rams/Vikings matchup had been shaved to 1½ points, even while more public money was backing the Vikings. Once State Farm Stadium had been designated as the game’s site, the line shifted up … but only one point.
Why?
In the National Football League, a common acceptance is that home field advantage is worth a field goal on the point spread. In other words, two teams perceived as equal would have the home team favored by three points.
If the Vikings are better than the Rams, they won four more games than Los Angeles during the regular season, why did the opening line not reflect that edge? Why, in fact, did they have the point spread open below even giving the Rams the customary three points afforded the home team?
Did the line indicate that today the books perceive the Rams as the better team?
When the home field advantage was taken away based on the move to Arizona and a neutral site, where did the three point shift in the point spread go? It didn’t show up in the line. Instead, the move only produced a one-point shift, moving Los Angeles from a 1½ point dog to 2½ points.
Through it all, the books have been taking more wagers on Minnesota in this game, a trend the books obviously don’t want to interrupt with a point spread high enough to encourage wagering on Los Angeles.
Do you find it interesting that when potential Super Bowl teams are mentioned the top choices in the National Football Conference are the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions and in the American Football Conference the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens? Left out of most conversations are the Vikings, who had as many wins this year as every one of those teams save the Chiefs and Lions. More wins than the Bills and Ravens and an equal number earned by the Eagles.
I suggest the public perception that the Vikings didn’t quite measure up with the other five top teams mentioned was correct. As good as they are, and as dramatic of a turnaround quarterback Sam Darnold has enjoyed this season, his ride on the shoulders of his teammates in the locker room after winning their fourteenth game of the season was likely their last triumphant act of the 2024 season.
Brady wouldn’t have allowed it, the Vikings celebrated success before the job was done.
Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Rams (+2½) over Minnesota Vikings