“You’ll never make money in this business being honest,” Joe told me over lunch in 1986.
Joe was working the other side of the counter, a bookie, who wore a Cheshire Cat grin as his clients bragged about how they were going to win this year because they had discovered the keys that always pointed to a winner. He knew that the more confident his clients were the more money they would be willing to risk and the more profits his book would generate.
My dedication was to delivering point spread plays that did win, selections that were not pinned to the normal offensive and defensive keys used by the public, but more tied to the motivational elements that dictate results. Factors I determined were paramount to accomplishing something less than 1% of gamblers achieve … turning consistent bottom line profits year-in-and-year-out. Joe figured that my honesty on actual results was a liability on making money while selling football picks.
My actual results could never compete in the 1980’s while big time operators like Jim Feist, Mike Warren and Danny Sheridan were advertising winning percentages that were fabricated to lure gamblers credit card numbers. National advertising campaigns in the USA Today would sell picks advertised as the sure winner on the Monday Night game. In truth, the services would give out both sides of the game, and chronicle what pick each caller got in exchange for their address, phone, and credit card number.
Those that got the winning side were called before the next game was played and sold more expensive picks now that the veracity of the information had been “proven.” Those that had the losing side of the Monday Night Football matchup had their information passed to the next table, with a caller that would contact them from a supposedly different organization that in the sales call would say their clients all got the winner on Monday night, and as long as they lost, they would like to do you a favor. Offering picks purported to be included in the $500 program for only $50 to “help you out of the hole that you would not be in if only you had our information the prior week.”
When a gambler is confronted with the possibility of winning the wager they just lost, the money in their mind goes more than double. Winning would have earned him a 100% profit, the loss cost him 110% of what he stood to gain.
The scam run on clients that were no more than marks to collect credit cards gave the handicapping business a reputation of an industry run by con artists. The only people buying other people's picks were suckers. Yet the business model was sound. Luring people who need a win to cover their losses with their books can be as enticing to a gambler as a piece of candy left out in the eyes of a 5-year-old.
“You can’t ever deliver enough winners to compete with the ads of the people making money selling picks,” Joe schooled.
I launched into my explanation of how to actually turn a profit while wagering on sports. First, I only do National Football League games. I know the sport, worked in it as a member of the Oakland Raiders front office in the 1970’s. Second, to win one needs to stop gambling. Webster defines gambling as, “Putting something of value at risk.” In the same publication, they define investing as “Leveraging in order to earn a profit.”
I define gambling as, “Wagering more when you are ahead until you are not, or wagering more when you are behind until you are in over your head.”
That’s gambling.
Investing is a whole different mindset. It does not hold the adrenaline boost that gambling does because you are not risking more than you can afford. It requires a plan and methodical approach to wagering that moves it from a get rich quick scheme to a solid business approach that employs a proven money management strategy.
And, like any real investment, it doesn’t always win. In the last dozen NFL seasons three didn’t show a bottom-line-profit after a season of using the money managed account. Yet, in successful seasons the profit margin has been significantly more than the percentage of losses in the losing campaigns.
Last season, the regular season on the money managed account earned a modest 13% gain, but a disappointing postseason run eroded those profits and ended the year with an 11% loss. The year before, the profit margin was 52%.
Earning bottom line profits are always a risk in this business because the selections are filtered through many clients who are gamblers. And I respect that if we don’t have a play on the Monday night game, gamblers are going to put something at risk because they thrive on the action.
Since 2001, my service, Qoxhi Picks, has offered an online account manager with results always determined by the most common closing line. Over the past eleven seasons we have worked with select clients to alert them to early point spread buys, games we know are going to be released on Sunday as rated picks and have a point spread that is currently more advantageous than we anticipate it will be on Sunday. Each year three to five games will have their results shifted from a loss or push to a push or win based on the early releases.
Only twice have we recommended an early play that ended up costing us on game day. In 2016, we recommended an early play on the Baltimore Ravens (-5½) while anticipating the game day line would move up to six. In fact, the wise guy action on game day drove the Cleveland Browns down to a 4½ point underdog and the game landed on five, the Ravens winning 25-20. Two years ago, we recommended an early week play on the Houston Texans (-6½) while expecting the closing number to go up to seven. In fact, the Chicago Bears were 6-point underdogs on game day and got a push on the game with the final score 19-13 in favor of the Texans.
In 2026, we have developed a method to give all clients the early alerts with the online account manager. We may not attract customers in the numbers the outfits that claim to never lose do, but we expect our clients will join that select group that shows a bottom-line profit while investing on NFL results.