It’s not difficult seeing the Seattle Seahawks running away with Super Bowl LX.
It could be argued that they already beat two teams better than New England in the National Football Conference playoffs while downing the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. It is perfect weather at Levi’s Stadium today and it could just be what the Seahawks need to unleash their dominance.
They have a quarterback, in Sam Darnold, that has the experience with eight years in the league and a record the past two seasons that matches the most regular season wins ever for a quarterback over consecutive years, 28.
Tom Brady won 14 games in each the 2003 and 2004 seasons and ended both those campaigns leading the Patriots to Super Bowl triumphs. Darnold won 14 games last season with the Minnesota Vikings and this year with the Seattle Seahawks. Pretty special stuff to win 28 games in two years with two different teams while the organizations he led to that win total didn’t make the playoffs either the year before he arrived or the year after he left.
The Seahawks opened as a 3½ point favorite and the line jumped a point before most had a chance to get down on the game. The quick jump on the spread was not a wise guy move; it was prompted by more than 70% of the early action coming in on Seattle from the wagering public.
At a couple of outlets in Nevada the line has risen to as high as 5½ points, but the sharp books online have stayed frozen for nearly two weeks with the Seahawks favored by 4½.
Yes, it is easy to picture the Seahawks dominating defense baffling the second-year signal caller for the Patriots, Drake Maye. After all, for much of this year Seattle had a defense that limited opponents to the fewest averages both against the rush and pass. Only one team ever played in a Super Bowl that had the defense that allowed the lowest average in both categories, and that was the winner of Super Bowl IX, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But before we throw all our chips on the favored Seahawks, the Patriots have a case to be made too.
For ten straight games they scored at least 23 points and gave up 23 or less. Why is that significant? Because the five teams that reached that plateau in points scored and allowed for at least seven straight weeks all went on to win their league championship. It happened in professional football twice before the Super Bowl era and three times since. All five teams not only won their league championships but won their title games by a touchdown or more while covering the point spread every time.
Then we come to that tough Seattle defense which has allowed 3.8 yards against the rush and 5.7 yards against the pass. The Patriots are no slouches on defense either, they have allowed 4.1 yards per rushing attempt and 5.8 against the pass. Offensively, the Patriots have rushed for a higher average, 4.4 to 4.1, and passed for the same 8.1 per attempt. Put it all together and the Seahawks come out with a cumulative rushing and passing advantage of 0.1 yards.
That is not a dominant figure.
Both teams have outstanding defenses, and as the trend in the NFL follows, defenses travel well. In fact, this season the New England Patriots are 9-0 when not playing on their home field, 7-2 in road games against the point spread. In Mike Macdonald’s two seasons as head coach of the Seahawks, his Seattle squads are 15-2 straight-up and 12-4-1 against the point spread on the road. This season, the Seahawks were 8-1 both straight-up and against the spread while playing outside Lumen Field.
Then there is the point spread in this year’s Super Bowl. It moved up to 4½ quickly, and while the public is still lining up on the Seahawks by a more than 72% margin, the sharpest books have kept the line at 4½.
In other words, if the books are taking a side, they are backing Mike Vrabel’s young Patriots.
If the books were worried about getting too much action on the Seahawks, that line would have gone up all week long.
It didn’t.
Betting on something you like because it feels good is like trying to catch a fly with your hand. You grab one every once in a while, but the surer method to end a fly’s annoyance is to hit it with a swatter.
Feelings are by hand, a fly swatter is handicapping.
We're going to use a swatter in Super Bowl LX.
Qoxhi Picks: New England Patriots (+4½) over Seattle Seahawks