The public loves underdogs.
Except when it comes to wagering on National Football League games.
Each week during the season the Qoxhi Picks site lists the three most bet teams of the week. This year, those three most bet games, 54 over the course of the 2025 season, were 100% favorites. The public gravitates to point spread favorites like a moth to a light bulb on a summer night.
You can’t blame them.
The idea your money is on the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers or Buffalo Bills is a lot more comforting than hoping the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants or Cleveland Browns win money with what many perceive as a “rare” point spread conquest.
In fact, brace yourself, the Jets, Titans, Giants and Browns had five more wins against the point spread this season than the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers and Bills combined. For the record, the four “bad” teams combined for a 31-36-1 mark against the line while the four “good” teams were 26-41-1.
The penchant for the public to back favorites is where the books make their greatest gains. It allows them the opportunity to add points to the bad teams knowing that the public is willing to trade a bad line for a good team.
This week, the public is backing the favored Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. Both the Seahawks and Patriots had not only excellent records straight up, both finished their regular seasons with 14 and 3 won/loss marks, they also did well against the point spread. The Seahawks were 12-5 during the regular season and have added two more point spread wins in the playoffs. The Patriots were 11-5-1 against the number in the regular season and have a 2-1 postseason mark against the spread.
Before the season began, the Seahawks and Patriots were both longshots to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Both teams were listed with identical 66-1 odds. Anyone who had a preseason Super Bowl wager on the two combatants that meet at Levi’s Stadium this Sunday are in for a big payday. One side will win with the long odds, the other will lose their wager. The books are in that rare spot to take one on the chin … although they have already cashed the majority of preseason Super Bowl wagers that were backing the Chiefs, Eagles, Rams, Ravens and Bills.
So, these two teams opened the season with like odds. Finished the regular season with exactly the same records. And now, the books have installed the Seahawks a strong favorite at minus 4½ points. A line that threatens to move up to 5 before Sunday’s kickoff.
Yep, the public is gravitating to the favorite … just like they always do. Do they know that the last five Super Bowls have paid the bettors that backed the underdog? In those five games, the dog won four of them straight-up and the Cincinnati Bengals got the point spread win with 4½ points in a three-point loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIV.
Despite the underdog success in the recent past, Super Bowl history shows that favorites in the previous 59 Super Bowl are 35-24 straight up with a point spread mark of 27-31-1. For your math wizards, you might notice that before the last five Super Bowls were played the favorites were 31-23 straight up and owned a slight edge against the point spread, 27-26-1.
What do these numbers tell us?
The Super Bowl is not going to be decided on some trend for or against the point spread favorite. It is going to be decided by the better team making the big plays. Motivation will play a role, and an overconfident team is a trap like it was for the Rams against the Bengals four years ago or the Baltimore Colts versus the New York Jets 57 years ago.
Because the Super Bowl this season is played in my backyard, I get to go onsite and watch for the team that is more in a high-five mode than focused on the task at hand. We observed that big time with the Carolina Panthers before they got upset by the Denver Broncos the last time Levi’s Stadium hosted the Super Bowl.
From a distance, both teams appear poised, today we get to see the squads up close.