There are times when handicapping is at odds with the actual football game matchup. I find myself looking for an edge not necessarily revealed in rushing and passing stats, but more from a motivational or trend perspective. I have a natural tendency to gravitate to underdogs for the simple reason that if I can find an underdog I consider a solid prospect to win the game, the point spread is never a hindrance and can be the difference in gaining a win.
I hate rooting for a point spread favorite that late in a game lead by nine points or more and are playing to win while giving a bleep about the point spread. Announcers use terms when an underdog scores a late touchdown that cuts into a deficit but doesn’t change the straight-up winner like “window dressing” or “meaningless.” But if that late score changed the point spread decision in my world it meant everything.
The teams on the field didn’t have any extra effort to defend the late score either, but for the bettors that “meaningless” touchdown made all the difference.
In the XXIX the San Francisco 49ers were favored by 19½ points, a line in the Super Bowl bigger than any since the New York Jets win over the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl III. The mismatch on the field had the smart money taking the bloated line, while I decided to wager on the clearly better football team.
Early in the fourth quarter Jerry Rice caught a touchdown pass from Steve Young to extend the Niners advantage to 49-18.
Safe? Right?