NFL 2024 Season - PS2
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

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Divisional Playoffs
Challenge Accepted
Wild Card Weekend
Early Celebration
QB matchup
Starting and Ending Spots
Wild Card Trend
What to Like
Rookie Quarterbacks
Broken Fever
That's That
Week 18
Checking the Boxes
Needs and Wants
Four and Out
One or the Other
Point Spread Clouds
Fix It
Hollow Revenge
To Win or Not to Win
Week 17
All Knowing
Complicated Made Simple
Advanced Calculus
Glow Dimmed
Brink of Elimination
Game of Survival
Pleading for the Fifth
Need over Nothing
Christmas Grinch
Week 16
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Spot Play
by Dennis Ranahan

I anticipated a Buffalo win last week, and that made this week’s contest in Baltimore highly contested. If the Bills did beat the Chiefs last Sunday, then they would be coming to Baltimore in the realm most football followers consider beneficial, that is “peaking at the right time.”

Seven weeks ago, the Bills had a 5% chance of winning the AFC East Division. The Miami Dolphins had held the top spot in their division the entire season, and were only to relinquish that edge on the day’s final regular season game when the Bills overcame a fourth quarter seven point deficit with a pair of touchdowns to pull out a 21-14 victory and their fourth straight AFC East title.

Then, the Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by two touchdowns and hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in the first road game Patrick Mahomes was ever forced to play in the American Football Conference playoffs. Somehow, the Bills managed to lose a game they seemed to dominate most the afternoon and ended with an edge in both total yards and turnover ratio.

As the Bills potential game tying field goal sailed wide right on their last offensive play, allowing Kansas City to escape with the win my handicapping shifted to a much easier win for the Ravens today. Kansas City being an easier opponent in the AFC Championship Game for John Harbaugh’s team than would have been the “peaking at the right time” Bills.

Yet, lining up with the Ravens does confront some daunting numbers and the challenge of battling Patrick Mahomes with the league’s Most Valuable Player, Baltimore Quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Mahomes has a sterling postseason record of 13-3, his only three losses suffered in two AFC Championship Games. First to the Patriots and Tom Brady in 2018 and the Cincinnati Bengals two years ago. In three Super Bowl appearances, his only loss was to Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.

In other words, Mahomes' three postseason losses were against Brady twice and the Bengals superstar signal caller, Joe Burrow.

Today, he meets Jackson in Baltimore.

The Ravens quarterback has not had the same postseason success enjoyed by Mahomes.

Jackson lost three of his first four postseason encounters and this is the first time he has reached his conference Championship Game. His only win in the playoffs, before last week’s triumph over the Houston Texas, was a Wild Card victory over the Tennessee Titans three years ago.

So, one could expect that the public betting would land solidly on the Chiefs chances today at M & T Bank Stadium.

Not so.

The Ravens are the most bet team of the day, and the books have adjusted the point spread in response to the heavy action on Baltimore. The line opened at 3½ points, with some spots opening the number at 3 points. Then, the action continued to favor Baltimore as the books moved the line up to four points, with some locations this morning adding another half-point to the Ravens favorite role.

I don’t like siding with public action, although there is no wise guy money on the Chiefs today. Taking a rising spread against Mahomes seems a bad idea. Until, of course, the superior team asserts its prowess in front of their home fans and this game goes for Mahomes a lot like his Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay went, a blowout defeat 31-9.

After all the elements are evaluated, that is the side we land on in this one. Laying the points and taking the better team at home in the AFC Championship Game.

Just like we are doing in the later game, taking the favorite and laying a generous point spread when the San Francisco 49ers entertain the Detroit Lions in the National Football Conference Championship Game.