Maybe because we were talking through masks, the friend I ran into at Safeway who was inquiring on who I thought was going to win the Super Bowl didn’t know I was kidding.
“Well,” I said, “We have to take into consideration that Brady has never beaten an AFC team in the Super Bowl.”
My friend nodded as if that was important information. I waited for a response that would see the absurdity in the statement, given Tom Brady had played the first 19 years of his NFL career with the American Football Conference New England Patriots, who would obviously always be up against an NFC team in the Super Bowl. Today, as a member of the NFC Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he will be facing his old conference for the first time.
While picking the Chiefs today because Brady has never beaten an AFC team in the Super Bowl is no less insignificant than a lot of reasons people are using to plunk money down on one side or the other.
I’ve heard those on both sides of the Brady factor. Some declaring that they would never bet on the cheater out of New England, while others discard any other factors with a declaration that they would never bet against Brady in a Super Bowl.
Betting against Brady in a Super Bowl is a winning proposition. In his nine previous games, he is 6-3 straight up but 4 and 5 against the point spread. As a favorite in the game, he is 2-5 against the number. He has twice been an underdog, against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and the Seattle Seahawks six years ago and won both those games straight up.