NFL 2024 Season - Week 7
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All Added Up
by Dennis Ranahan

Super Bowl morning has arrived and at least according to early reports it does not appear players from either the Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers got into any trouble last night in Sin City.

Some players who broke curfew and coroused in the night and early morning hours were instrumental in the winning team fortunes. Most notably, Max Magee, who as a backup in his 12th professional season didn’t anticipate seeing any action in Super Bowl I for the Green Bay Packers. But, the receiver in front of him on the Packers depth chart, Boyd Dowler, was injured early in the game and forced to the sideline.

On comes Magee, who admitted later he was suffering from the effects of a night of drinking when he trotted onto the field to replace Dowler. In the first quarter, he made a reach back grab of a Bart Starr pass and ran into the endzone with a 37 yard completion that was the first touchdown scored in a Super Bowl game. Which, in 1967, was not yet known as the Super Bowl, but rather the AFL - NFL World Championship Game.

By the end of that first Championship Game between the two leagues Magee had caught more passes than he did all season. He had five catches in the regular season, and seven that day in Los Angeles that included two touchdown receptions when the Packers beat the Chiefs, 35-10.

A couple other more recent examples of players using poor judgment before the game did not end so well. Eugene Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons was caught on the wrong side of town in South Florida and detained for propositioning an undercover police officer posing as a prostitute. His Falcons lost that year’s Super Bowl to the Denver Broncos, 34-19, in John Elway’s last game as an NFL player.

The Oakland Raiders had their starting center, Barret Robbins, go awol before Super Bowl XXXVII and lost the game to their former head coach, Jon Gruden, and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 48-21.

Both the Chiefs and 49ers have veteran rosters and athletes that have been here before. The enormity of the game hasn’t apparently driven any of their players off the deep end leading up to the 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time kickoff in Las Vegas.

The 49ers have at times this season appear invincible. They were favored in all 20 of their games leading to today’s Super Bowl and beat every NFC team that participated in this year's playoffs. San Francisco downed the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles in the regular season and knocked off the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the postseason.

The 49ers have also lost five games this season and required comebacks against both the Packers and Detroit Lions to reach today’s Super Bowl.

The Kansas City Chiefs drive to their third Super Bowl in four years has also not always been smooth. Although favored in all 17 of their regular season games, Kansas City lost their season opener to the Detroit Lions. They became only the fourth defending Super Bowl Champion to open the season with a loss since the National Football League began the tradition of having the defending champion open the season on Thursday night at home.

Kansas City has also struggled on offense, finishing the season in the middle of the league in points scored. But, while Patrick Mahomes has not been as productive as in past years, attributable more to a suspect receiving corps than his skill level, the Chiefs defense has been among the best in the league all season. Only the Baltimore Ravens allowed fewer points than the 294 Andy Reid’s squad allowed. And, the Chiefs beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago and held two of their three playoff opponents to ten or fewer points. In their win over the Ravens, the Chiefs allowed 10 points, and in their opening postseason contest they limited the high scoring Miami Dolphins to seven points.

San Francisco is just four points off the defensive number allowed by Kansas City. In the regular season, San Francisco gave up 298 while outsourcing the Chiefs offense by 120 points, 491 to 371.

So, who has the edge in this one?

We see San Francisco advantages coming from all angles. They have the more dynamic offense and a defense that can go toe-to-toe with Kansas City’s. They also have a motivational advantage that includes a personal edge against the Chiefs, a team that beat them in this game four years ago.

Then there is the quarterback matchup, while Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league and brings a 14-3 straight-up and 12-5 playoff point spread record into this game, Brock Purdy has never missed an opportunity when not knocked out of the action with an injury. After taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo a year-ago in a December matchup against Miami, Purdy completed that victory and won his first start the following week, against Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 35-7.

His first road game was a Monday night affair in Seattle, and resulted in a win for the 49ers over the Seahawks. Four weeks later, Purdy led San Francisco to a victory over the Dallas Cowboys in his first postseason game. And opened this season with a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, 30-7. That triumph happened in the same week the Chiefs lost their home opener.

Losing a home opener is not a good omen.

Only one team in NFL history has won a Super Bowl in a season they started with a home loss, that was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002.

Then we have this, the only thing the public does worse than pick favorites is pick underdogs. While San Francisco is favored today over Mahomes and Company, the public betting is near 70% on the underdog Chiefs. And yet, the point spread has been almost always set at the 49ers favored by two points.

The books don’t move lines based on the number of bets they are taking on each side, but rather the amount of money each side is collecting. Do you know how much “smart” money has to be on the 49ers to offset 70% action on the underdog?

Enough, I suggest, to pay the price on the line and collect on the wager.

Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-2) over Kansas City Chiefs