NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 16
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Heart in San Francisco
by Dennis Ranahan

When I opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, the toughest team for me to handicap was the San Francisco 49ers. I suspect in looking back the reason for this was twofold; first, I had grown up a 49ers fan and saw the team fail a lot more often than they won. I was at Kezar in 1970 for their last game in that stadium, an NFC Conference Championship Game loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and at Candlestick Park two years later, when Dick Nolan’s squad surrendered a 15 point lead to lose to Dallas in a playoff game.

The next season, 1973, I started my years in the front office of the Oakland Raiders, first as an intern, then summer camp worker and finally as a full time staff member. The Raiders were always business, the 49ers had my heart, and that may be why I had so much trouble handicapping the Niners and found predicting the outcomes for the Silver and Black routine.

Dwight Clark’s catch against the Cowboys in 1981 was a huge day for fans of the 49ers, but a point spread loss for me and my clients. I had the Cowboys that day, but fortunately did win a couple weeks later with San Francisco over Cincinnati in Super Bowl XVI. For more than a decade the 49ers were the best team in football, and had a road record better than almost every other team's home record for the ensuing 13 seasons.

That didn’t match with my history as a kid watching the team, or my charts as a professional handicapper. The Niners just won too darn often when my numbers said they should be in trouble, at least against the point spread.

This year, the success with the Raiders and problems with the 49ers is absolutely reversed. The Raiders have beaten me this year when I pick them or against them. They do it with dropped passes or end of the game safeties, yet the 49ers have been one of the bright spots this year.

I have picked the 49ers to beat the spread eight times this season, and are 6-1-1 in those games with the only loss a defeat on Monday night against the Vikings in Minnesota. I picked against the Niners once this year, their Week Six contest in Cleveland against the Browns. San Francisco had blown out the Dallas Cowboys the previous week, 42-10, to extend their record to 5-0 and were favored by 9½ points against the Browns.

The game proved to be the 49ers first loss of the year when a late field goal attempt was wide and the Browns escaped with a 19-17 win.

When the 49ers lost a third straight game the week before their bye to the Cincinnati Bengals, we didn’t have the game because I thought the 49ers made one of the major mistakes a team can make. That is, prepare all week in expectation that you will be forced to play with the backup quarterback, in the 49ers case Sam Darnold, and then over the weekend announce that the starter, Brock Purdy, has recovered enough from his injury to make the start.

The reason this is such a problem for a team is that their preparation was heightened when they thought they needed to win with the backup, and that motivation is leveled when they get the comfort of knowing their starter is back.

Since that setback to the Bengals on October 29th, the 49ers have returned to the terror they inflicted on their opponents during the first five weeks of the season. This time they have won four straight games by double-digits including a satisfying triumph in Philadelphia last Sunday where they somewhat got revenge for last January's Championship Game loss on the same field to Jalen Hurts and company.

In October, they had beaten the Cowboys by 32 points, 42-10, then got upset in Cleveland. Now, they come off a 42-19 triumph in Philadelphia and come home to meet the Seattle Seahawks while favored by 11 points.

The 49ers are very special, so special that the books have turned them into the wrong side of this week's wagering proposition. San Francisco comes into this game having scored a touchdown on a record six straight offensive possessions, now they have to find a motivational edge to win against a division opponent that they already creamed two weeks ago in Seattle, 31-13.

Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (+11) over San Francisco 49ers