If you have the Kansas City Chiefs on a future ticket to win Super Bowl LVIII, you can consider that wager a lost cause. The Chiefs narrow home setback to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night puts Andy Reid's team in a statistical nightmare. Of the 57 Super Bowl winners, only one lost at home on opening day and they had an excuse.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened their 2002 Super Bowl winning season with an overtime home loss to the New Orleans Saints. I say an excuse, because the Buccaneers had drilled the Saints on this same field the prior season in December, 48-21. Every other Super Bowl winner that opened at home, 23 of them, won their first game of the season.
Losing on the road is a bit more forgiving, nine eventual Super Bowl winners lost the opening game of their championship campaign on the road, compiling a record of 24-9. What this means in practical terms is that 16 teams have a chance to lose at home this week and create tremendous odds against them finishing the season while collecting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Chiefs loss last night signals that in all likelihood they will not be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions since the New England Patriots won back-to-back titles in 2003 and 2004. The Chiefs have been to the AFC Championship Game five straight years and advanced to three Super Bowls, winning two to complete the 2019 and 2022 seasons.
On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the San Francisco 49ers. If the favored Niners prevail, my Super Bowl pick of Mike Tomlin’s team is put on the same life support that the Chiefs created for themselves with last night’s narrow loss to the Lions, 21-20.
Another highly touted Super Bowl hopeful is the Cincinnati Bengals, they open in Cleveland against the Browns. Both these AFC North Division squads have legitimate hopes for ending the season with a date to get their fingers measured for a ring. The Bengals were on the doorstep of a second straight Super Bowl appearance last season before falling to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in a hard fought three point decision, 23-20.
If the Bengals were to down the Browns on their home field, a site where Cleveland has defeated their AFC North Division rivals five straight times and never lost to Cincinnati’s brilliant young quarterback, Joe Burrow, big things could be in the offing for Zac Taylor’s squad. It would also shed some serious shade over the Browns Super Bowl aspirations. Sunday in Pittsburgh, the Steelers could heighten their prospects with an upset win over the 49ers, but a loss leaves them with daunting odds against ending this season in the winning locker room.
Yet, on the other side, if either or both Cleveland and Pittsburgh win at home against the Bengals and 49ers respectfully, it would allow them to lay claim to the prospect of being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Every week matters, but opening games tell so much about the real direction of every team in the league. We know this, of the 57 Super Bowl winners, 47 of them won their opening game of the season.
Like the Lions did.