Since we met in college 50 years ago, Pam has been a sounding board for my theories and numbers on the National Football League. She knows about football, but she even surprised me yesterday while getting all the answers right on what I thought was a tough quiz.
I asked her, “How many teams do you think on the average have a new head coach heading into a season?”
Pam said 20%.
I requested her answer be the number of teams, and she did the math and said 6.4.
That’s right, I acknowledged, although my number was a flat 6, her’s might even be more accurate.
My next question was, “How many teams do you think open a season with a new starting quarterback?”
She first said 25% before quickly doing the math and following my instructions to give her answer in the number of teams, which computes to eight.
Right again. I spent hours pouring over numbers to find tendencies and had come to the conclusion that in a typical season we’ll have six new head coaches and eight quarterbacks installed as first time starters for their teams. And Pam got the numbers right while pouring a glass of ice tea in the kitchen.
My final question first required this caveat, while the average is six new coaches and eight first time starting quarterbacks, this year those actual numbers are five new head coaches and ten quarterbacks making their initial start for their teams this weekend.
Perhaps the league being one coaching change short of established averages can be attributed to the Los Angeles Chargers not firing Brandon Staley, which will happen at the end of this season if the Chargers don’t go deep into the playoffs.
Does the fact that we have more new quarterbacks and less turnover in the coaching ranks make a difference? How can we use these factors to our favor if in fact it taints how the season unfolds in 2023.
My premise in handicapping is that everything matters. But still, I relied on the ‘right on target’ answers Pam had delivered to my first two questions.
“Of course it matters,” Pam stated, “But I’m not sure how it is going to affect the season.”
Well, first things first, I’m innately not interested in a rookie quarterback on the road. In the first week, that would throw caution to the Carolina Panthers, who open against the Falcons in Atlanta with first-pick-in-the-draft Bryce Young behind center. The Houston Texans open in Baltimore against the Ravens with C.J. Stroud running their offense, he was the second pick in the 2023 draft.
One rookie, who was taken fourth in the draft, opens at home on Sunday when Anthony Richardson takes the Indianapolis Colts into battle against Trevor Lawrence and his Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium.
How best to utilize the out of balance shifts at coaching and quarterbacks was finally to be answered by perhaps the best natural knowing person in the room, and Pam said, “We’ll just have to see.”
Oh, and finally I thought this was going to get easy.
Darn.