The “smart money” doesn’t always win, but you wouldn’t want to treat your bankroll to going against them. Sometimes, they can outsmart themselves, and that might be the case this week when they have forced the books to install the Detroit Lions as a favorite over the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings are 10-2 this season while the Lions have won their last five games against the point spread and four of those contests straight up. Years of futility have apparently fed the beast, and the Lions are roaring like we haven’t seen in years.
Last week, they went back and forth between a slight favorite or slight underdog in their home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, closing at (-1 ½) and winning the game big … 40-14. Their recent play has spirits lifted among Detroit fans not of making the playoffs, but of not being the worst team in football.
Their stock has risen dramatically over the past month. They haven’t been soundly beaten since October 9th, when the Patriots clobbered them in Foxboro, 29-0. Even the next week, a 24-6 Dallas win over Detroit in Texas, had the Lions with a first-and-goal at the one-yard line with a touchdown giving them the lead on the scoreboard with half the fourth quarter to go. Instead, they fumbled the ball on first down, the Cowboys recovered, and scored twice late to have a final score that did not reflect the actual competitiveness of the game.
In other words, even in defeat, the Lions have been pretty good this year.
Good enough to be favored over a divisional rival that leads them by five games in the standings?
The wise guys think so.
Seems like a bit of a jump to me. They think the Lions are going to get better off a 40-14 victory? That is not the way it usually works. The Lions do have the advantage that even as a favorite on the point spread, they know they have to play well to beat the Vikings. But are we to accept that the Vikings are going to go soft because they have a five game lead in the NFC North Division?
The Lions are not the Vikings competition this year, Minnesota has their sights set on the number one seed in the National Football Conference playoffs. Their competition is the Philadelphia Eagles, and they, according to our numbers, are in for a dogfight tomorrow in New Jersey.
The Eagles have only one loss this year, Minnesota two. In other words, this is not a bloated Vikings team coming to town thinking they need only throw their helmets on the field and expect a victory by game’s end.
The wise guy money and the accommodating books have stripped the Lions of any benefit in this game. If Detroit was a nearly double-digit underdog like they were on Thanksgiving against Buffalo, which is the only game the Lions have lost straight up in five weeks while covering the 9½ point line in a 28-25 loss, this would be a real good wager on the Lions.
In their four straight-up wins they were underdogs in three of them and only favored last week by 1½ points before their lopsided win over Jacksonville.
Do you see what I’m getting at here?
The “smart money” is locked on a team while my numbers reveal they are missing an edge in the wager. As an underdog this week, I would be all over the Detroit Lions. But as a point spread favorite against a Vikings team that has more to play for than only beating the Lions, this situation does not generate a good wagering proposition.
I’m tempted to go against the “smart money” here, but ultimately, that is seldom smart.