I recently finished reading “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” by William Shirer. It is 1140 pages of Bible size type in which the author offers a fascinating first hand account of the campaign Adolph Hitler waged against the world while leading Germany into World War II. Nothing in the book offers even a hint that eighty years later the National Football League would be staging one of their games in Germany.

But they are, and it kicked off a couple hours ago at Allianz Arena and involves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. It is the first game the NFL has ever played in Germany and has another interesting element, the Seahawks are the most bet team off the Week 10 card. Most often, these unusually early starts, 6:30 a.m. Las Vegas time, don’t generate a lot of action … but this one has more than any other game this week.

Why?

Because a team as impressive as the NFC West leading Seattle Seahawks getting points against a Tampa Bay squad as far off track as Tom Brady’s marriage and his investment in the FTX crypto collapse is just too inviting. ‘How can Seattle be underdogs on a neutral field’ is what most bettors are thinking and figure before their alarm goes off this morning they can already be on their way to cashing a winning wager.

When the “wrong” team is favored I tend to lean with the books with knowledge that they know what they are doing and what looks “wrong” to mere mortals is simply a trap set by the smartest rats in the game.

While I don’t pick the 6:30 a.m. starts for the primary reason it is unfair to clients who start their day with us and hour and half after those games kickoff, we will quietly dismiss the foreign country invasion and take a look at other games scheduled to be played at reasonable hours today.

While the public’s most bet game is the Seahawks, here are the next three popular plays by the betting public; Miami Dolphins (-3½) over Cleveland Browns; New York Giants (-4½) over Houston Texans; Kansas City Chiefs (-9) over Jacksonville Jaguars.

Only one of the outdoor games has weather conditions that could affect play today, that is in Buffalo where snow is expected for the contest between the Bills and Minnesota Vikings. In this game, are the Bills making the same mistake the Los Angeles Chargers did seven weeks ago when they pushed quarterback Justin Herbert into action while all week preparing for the high probability that he would be sidelined with an injury and the team would be under the direction of their backup field general?

While that decision was made on Sunday, the team that had the motivation of compensating for the loss of their quarterback was suddenly and surprisingly relieved that they wouldn’t have to put forth an extra effort because Herbert was back. That put the Chargers motivation in the dumper and they lost the game to the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, 38-10.

The Bills were preparing this week to meet the first place Vikings with backup Case Keenum under center. But on Saturday, it became clear that Josh Allen had recovered enough from the elbow injury suffered last week in Buffalo’s loss to the New York Jets to allow him to start.

While I would have had the Bills as a point spread play if Keenum was the starter, I don’t like the squirrely motivation now that an injured Allen gets the start.

There are two other games that do meet all our criteria to be rated money plays today, and they are currently posted on this site. If a Bullet Play develops in the final hour leading up to the 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time starts, that game will be added to the list of recommendations by 9:45 a.m.