Sale on Aisle 12!
Most buyers aren’t interested in the sale item, in fact, they are paying a premium price for the competing product.
What’s on sale?
The Green Bay Packers at a point spread price, according to Qoxhi charts, of 65. Their competition this week, the Dallas Cowboys, are priced at 93.
What is a point spread price? It is a method to evaluate the value in a line that was developed by Paul, who has worked with me since 1983. It was a great way to utilize his University of California degree to break down NFL point spreads and find where value exists in the lines. An average point spread price on this chart is 70, and a team as good as the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs will crack triple digits during a season. Bad teams will dip into the 40’s.
This year, the Green Bay Packers have averaged 84 even while they have struggled on the field with three wins in nine decisions. You can deduce from that number that Aaron Rodgers and company have been overrated most of the year, and their point spread record of 3 and 6 reflects their troubles.
On the other side of the ledger is the Dallas Cowboys. They have had an average point spread price of 68, which belies the fact that they are only two games behind the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East Division while compiling a 6-2 straight up record and a point spread mark also equal to their straight up results, 6-2.
When we see a dramatic shift in a point spread price number it is almost always tied to the loss of a key player, commonly a team’s quarterback. That can be seen this week where the Buffalo Bills, in light of the injury to Josh Allen, are priced at home 19 point spread price numbers lower than they were last week on the road against the New York Jets.
But, in the case of the Cowboys and Packers, the dramatic shift is generated exclusively by public opinion. You can also probably understand this in light of the Packers losing last week to the struggling Detroit Lions while the Cowboys are coming off a bye week and their effort going into their open date was a resounding 49 point assault on the overmatched Chicago Bears.
What public opinion most often reflects is in alignment with how the athletes feel themselves. That is, when the public thinks a team is in as much trouble as they perceive the Packers to be in this week, the athletes involved in the game probably feel the same way. That is where a motivational spike resonates. The Cowboys think they have the horses to dominate this contest and the Packers know they need to play their best just to stay in the game.
Then we have the empirical evidence provided by Paul’s point spread price numbers, which shows this week the Cowboys priced at 93, 20 points higher than their previous season high of 73. And the Packers priced at 65, 14 points lower than their previous low price of 79. And, how did these two teams do at their previous highs and lows?
The Cowboys lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on opening day, 19-3, when priced at 73. The Packers won over the Chicago Bears, 27-10, in second week action when priced at their previous low mark of 79.
Now, the Packers are certainly on sale this week and we need to be cautious that the books will often put a team on sale with the point spread when they are really in big trouble. But, what we know here is that it is not the books that put the Packers on sale but rather the public.
So, while the masses are in line to lay too many points with the “sure thing” Cowboys, I suggest we meet at the payout window after the game while backing the Pack.
Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (+4) over Dallas Cowboys