NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
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Week 16
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
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Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
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Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
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All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
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Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
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Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
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Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Public Sale
by Dennis Ranahan

Sale on Aisle 12!

Most buyers aren’t interested in the sale item, in fact, they are paying a premium price for the competing product.

What’s on sale?

The Green Bay Packers at a point spread price, according to Qoxhi charts, of 65. Their competition this week, the Dallas Cowboys, are priced at 93.

What is a point spread price? It is a method to evaluate the value in a line that was developed by Paul, who has worked with me since 1983. It was a great way to utilize his University of California degree to break down NFL point spreads and find where value exists in the lines. An average point spread price on this chart is 70, and a team as good as the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs will crack triple digits during a season. Bad teams will dip into the 40’s.

This year, the Green Bay Packers have averaged 84 even while they have struggled on the field with three wins in nine decisions. You can deduce from that number that Aaron Rodgers and company have been overrated most of the year, and their point spread record of 3 and 6 reflects their troubles.

On the other side of the ledger is the Dallas Cowboys. They have had an average point spread price of 68, which belies the fact that they are only two games behind the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East Division while compiling a 6-2 straight up record and a point spread mark also equal to their straight up results, 6-2.

When we see a dramatic shift in a point spread price number it is almost always tied to the loss of a key player, commonly a team’s quarterback. That can be seen this week where the Buffalo Bills, in light of the injury to Josh Allen, are priced at home 19 point spread price numbers lower than they were last week on the road against the New York Jets.

But, in the case of the Cowboys and Packers, the dramatic shift is generated exclusively by public opinion. You can also probably understand this in light of the Packers losing last week to the struggling Detroit Lions while the Cowboys are coming off a bye week and their effort going into their open date was a resounding 49 point assault on the overmatched Chicago Bears.

What public opinion most often reflects is in alignment with how the athletes feel themselves. That is, when the public thinks a team is in as much trouble as they perceive the Packers to be in this week, the athletes involved in the game probably feel the same way. That is where a motivational spike resonates. The Cowboys think they have the horses to dominate this contest and the Packers know they need to play their best just to stay in the game.

Then we have the empirical evidence provided by Paul’s point spread price numbers, which shows this week the Cowboys priced at 93, 20 points higher than their previous season high of 73. And the Packers priced at 65, 14 points lower than their previous low price of 79. And, how did these two teams do at their previous highs and lows?

The Cowboys lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on opening day, 19-3, when priced at 73. The Packers won over the Chicago Bears, 27-10, in second week action when priced at their previous low mark of 79.

Now, the Packers are certainly on sale this week and we need to be cautious that the books will often put a team on sale with the point spread when they are really in big trouble. But, what we know here is that it is not the books that put the Packers on sale but rather the public.

So, while the masses are in line to lay too many points with the “sure thing” Cowboys, I suggest we meet at the payout window after the game while backing the Pack.

Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (+4) over Dallas Cowboys