Headline Play Guest: Circle the Wagons

Circle the Wagons

by Dennis Ranahan

The two teams that squared off in Super Bowl LV meet tonight in Florida when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Kansas City Chiefs.

When they met two seasons ago, the Chiefs were slight favorites on the point spread, and the Buccaneers were a definitive winner on the field, 31-9. Tonight, the Buccaneers are coming off a loss at home while the Chiefs are coming off a loss on the road.

Kansas City was upset by the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday, 20-17, and lost to the Buccaneers in their most recent encounter in the Super Bowl.

I read that as an advantage for the Chiefs, when you know what I’m looking for. I’m looking for a team that thinks they have to play their best and it might not be enough to win. The problem with the Chiefs is that they know if they play their best they will win.

Which brings us to the Buccaneers, led on the field by a man closer to social security than any player in the league. He is one hit away from legally parking in the handicap zone. I’m talking about Tom Brady, and I have nothing but acknowledgement for the proven GOAT that entered the league as a sixth round draft choice.

While saluting Brady, I also am aware of physics and the equation that at some point age plays a role in performance. I got to work with George Blanda for three seasons, and he was the old man of football and an occasional emergency quarterback, but primarily a kicker. The fact that Blanda played into his mid forties was something to marvel at in 1975.

Today, we are not talking about a kicker in his mid-forties still able to split the uprights, but rather the field general directing traffic against defenses bent on burying him. For the past two decades Brady under 45 won, I’m not sure we can expect the same from Brady 45 and older.

So, take the Chiefs tonight?

Not so fast.

Neither of these teams are on a path that would promise future success, so the question becomes which one will falter first?

If I was a betting man, and in the words of a good friend, I might be, I would bet that Brady meets his Waterloo tonight and the Chiefs pick up a road win.

While I may be a gambling man, when it comes to football, I’m all business. Betting against Brady and the Buccaneers tonight is too easy, and expecting the Chiefs to rebound on the road following a road setback is not a high percentage play.

In the gambling world, I love the Chiefs. From an investment perspective, I have no recommendation.

Unwise

by Dennis Ranahan

I respect the elements the wise guys are seeing to lead them to back the New England Patriots tonight when they battle the Buffalo Bills to kickoff the 13the week of National Football League action.

This is a game between two division opponents with the team in first place two games ahead of their home underdog opponent.

Advantage home underdog.

The Buffalo Bills are now playing their third straight road game after having a scheduled home date shifted to Detroit to avoid the record snowfall in Buffalo. In that game, the Bills won in unconvincing fashion while covering the line by the score of 31-23. The Bills were favored by 7½ points in their win over the Cleveland Browns. Last week, on Thanksgiving, they battled the Detroit Lions yard-for-yard, point-for-point, before escaping the holiday with a three point win, 28-25.

Not high credentials for a team that was favored by 9½ points in Detroit and opened as a six point favorite in this AFC Division tilt against Bill Belichick’s squad.

Reasoning can deduce that if the Bills had trouble winning against Detroit on the road, they are likely to have more trouble trying to beat the Patriots by more points a road game later.

This is a rare Thursday night game where both teams come in following a full week between contests. Both the Bills and Patriots played on Thanksgiving, the Bills with their victory in Detroit and the Patriots losing to the Vikings in Minnesota.

While respecting the preponderance of evidence that the wise guys follow to come up with the Patriots (+3½) being the side tonight, I beg to differ on a more important criteria; the unique factors that feed this game.

When a first place team is meeting a team two games back in their standings, they are often playing their primary competition. But, the Bills are not playing their primary competition tonight, that comes from the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, who both have better records than the Patriots while all four AFC East teams currently have more wins than losses.

The only reason the Patriots are considered in this division race at all is because they beat the Jets twice, 22-17 in October and 10-3 last month. Beating the Jets to remain in the race is a lot less difficult than beating the best team in the division while trying to knock them out of the top spot.

The Bills have had seven days to prepare for this game with the knowledge that their effort against Detroit would not be enough to beat the Patriots tonight. That puts the better team on full alert.

The better team knowing it has to play better while locked in a tight division race against quality teams is the perfect spot for the Bills to bounce off a narrow win over the Lions with a lopsided triumph against the Patriots.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-3½) over New England Patriots

Not Our Money

by Dennis Ranahan

I’ve got a couple great reasons to bet on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup when the Indianapolis Colts entertain the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Only problem is, one of the great reasons is on one side, and the other great reason is on the other team. So, we can have a great point spread proposition on the Colts laying less than three points at home against a team they grade out better against or a team that owns a significant motivational edge in the Steelers.

It can also be ascertained by their recent play that the Colts are having fun playing for their recently named head coach, Jeff Saturday. The one time star on the Colts offensive line is now at the center of attention as the Colts midseason replacement for another popular with the players head coach, Frank Reich.

The first thing Saturday did when he took over a few weeks ago was reinstall Matt Ryan as the Colts starting quarterback. A totally anemic Indianapolis offense while under the direction of second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which was a last ditch effort by Reich to give his team a chance while his offensive line wasn’t good enough to protect a stationary Ryan.

In other words, for Reich, plan A didn’t work and neither did Plan B, and it cost him his job. Saturday was a controversial hire, a man who had twice turned down opportunities to join the Colts coaching staff as an assistant, was suddenly the head guy.

How would this work out?

While I wouldn’t bet on Saturday ever hoisting a trophy won on Super Sunday while head coach, the ability to align a roster currently more talented than tonight’s opponent is within his grasp. Since his hiring three weeks ago, the team responded with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Saturday’s first game and a staunch challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles last week, a contest won by Philadelphia, 17-16.

Then bet on the Colts tonight?

Not a chance.

The Steelers have a head coach that is likely going to suffer his first losing season ever in Mike Tomlin. The man brings a sincere intensity to his role that inspires his team’s to their best efforts, and you can be sure that this group will do all they can to avoid handing Tomlin his first losing campaign in his 16 seasons as the Steelers head coach.

What these two teams have in common is that they both have proud traditions and are most often included when the playoff field is dealt. This year, both are unlikely participants in the postseason, and with a loss tonight, either of them could move precariously close to mathematically eliminated.

Which team has got the guile to get the win tonight?

The Steelers have our nod, but not our money.

Night Off

by Dennis Ranahan

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles meet tonight in a game that before the season began you would think the season results were opposite. The Packers came into this season one of the favorites to represent the National Football Conference in Super Bowl LVII. In actuality, it is the Eagles who have the best record in the NFC and the Packers trail the Minnesota Vikings by four games with as much chance of earning a postseason slot as you or I.

The Eagles come into tonight’s action with the best record in football, nine wins against a single loss. But, it can be deduced that the Eagles are done dominating opponents based on losing their last three games against the point spread to the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts.

The Packers, on the other hand, are as reliable this year as an old car with a weak battery on a cold winter morning.

Green Bay has lost six of their last seven games and their offense, once the pride of Aaron Rodgers, is sputtering as much as a car running two cylinders short.

Now, the NFL is not like a dance, where you leave with the girl you brought.

In the NFL, teams that often dominated the first half of a season have trouble covering point spreads from the midpoint on. Put the Eagles in that category.

Now, there is no way we want to back a Green Bay team with only a shadow of their past effectiveness, but to back the Eagles giving six points to Aaron Rodgers is to jump on a bandwagon a bit late.

Don’t want the Eagles, not willing to back the Packers.

What does that leave us with tonight … a night off.

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