Fifteen of the National Football League teams that lost on opening day are hiding behind the story that it is only one game and there are plenty of chances to get better and win. One can find a couple stark examples that opening day results don’t necessarily indicate the season long direction of a team.
In 2001, the Carolina Panthers opened as a 10 point underdog in Minnesota and beat the Vikings straight-up, 24-13.
Good things to come for the Panthers that year?
Hardly, they didn’t win another game that entire season.
In 2003, the New England Patriots opened with a 31-0 loss to their AFC East Division rivals, the Buffalo Bills. They only lost one more game that season, and closed out the regular campaign with a win over the Bills, 31-0. That victory clinched the top seed in the playoffs for Bill Belichick’s squad with a 14-2 record. They parlayed that success into a win in Super Bowl XXXVIII over the Carolina Panthers, who had recovered from their 15 straight losses two years earlier to win the National Football Conference in 2003.
It is worth noting that the Patriots opening loss to the Bills in 2003 was on the road, making the Patriots one of the nine teams that opened their Super Bowl winning season with a loss on the road. Only one team in NFL history opened with a loss at home and then went on to win the Super Bowl. That was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost in Florida in overtime against the New Orleans Saints to open the 2002 season, and ended it with a win over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.
So, while we have some exceptions to the rule, it is a pretty good indicator that teams that do win on opening day are a lot more likely to advance to that year’s Super Bowl. In all, of the 56 Super Bowl winners, 45 started with a win, 10 lost, and one, the Green Bay Packers in 1966, pushed in their season opening contest. Super Bowl teams also do well against the point spread on opening day with a 41-13-2 mark.
Losing on opening day on the road doesn’t necessarily erase a team's chances to play for all the marbles five months down the road, but losing at home? Yeah, that pretty much spells doom for an organization with Super Bowl aspirations.
Who does that affect this year that was among the betting favorites? Both teams that played in Super Bowl LVI. The Cincinnati Bengals lost in overtime to the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium, while the Los Angeles Rams were handled by the Buffalo Bills in their Thursday night home opener in defense of their championship.
Other legitimate Super Bowl contenders that lost at home last week were the Arizona Cardinals, who were crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs, 44-21. The Dallas Cowboys had the best point spread record in the league last year while winning the NFC East, and lost both their game and quarterback in their home opener on Sunday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Two highly regarded squads, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers, lost their openers on the road. The Packers were beaten by the Minnesota Vikings, 23-7, while the 49ers allowed a 10-0 third quarter lead slip to a 19-10 defeat at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears.
On to the positive.
Which teams won important games impressively last week to lay claim on being a legitimate Super Bowl contender? The Vikings win over the Packers was impressive, and two road favorites that were bet on by the public went on for easy double-digit road wins, the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Since 2004, only two teams in 16 attempts were able to defeat the defending Super Bowl Champions on their home field in the Thursday night opener. That was before the Bills became the third, as they dismantled the Rams on their home field, 31-10. While the Ravens beat the Jets, and covered the touchdown road favorite role, their 24-9 win had a very interesting stat. The Jets had more rushing yards and more passing yards than the Ravens, and still lost by more than two touchdowns.
This can be interpreted as the Ravens being so good they can win even while not piling up big yards, or the Jets are so bad that even gaining on the ground and through the air is not enough to make up for their overall play.
While we sort that out, let's not miss the obvious.
The Bills are for real, and there is no reason they won’t follow up their opening win with another clobber job when the Tennessee Titans come calling this Monday night. After all, the Titans lost at home last week, to the New York Giants, which indicates they are not a serious threat this year and before their stock hits the skids it appears a perfect time to cash in on their decline and the Bills excellence.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-10) over Tennessee Titans