Headline Play Guest: Crash Landing

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Crash Landing

by Dennis Ranahan

Two teams with perfect preseason records square off on Sunday in New Jersey when the New York Jets host the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens completing another perfect preseason is nothing new, they have won 23 straight preseason games and haven’t lost a summer contest in five years. But the Jets? How can we read their 3-0 preseason?

Might it be more in line with the perfect 4-0 preseason marks that the Detroit Lions put together in 2008 and the Cleveland Browns scored before their 2017 regular season? The Lions and Browns followed their perfect preseasons with winless regular season campaigns that saw both teams struggle through oh and 16 records.

Now that we are on a team with struggles, it seems a perfectly appropriate time to discuss the J-E-T-S. This is a team that consistently does better against the point spread than they do straight-up, but still come up losers most weeks. Even with generous point spreads the Jets have scored only three winning point spread seasons since 2012, and only once had a winning record straight-up.

That was in 2015, when the Jets finished the season with ten wins. It was only good enough to be two games behind Tom Brady and his New England Patriots in the AFC East Division standings and out in the cold when the playoffs opened. It was a season in which a couple other second place AFC teams finished with double-digit wins and edged the Jets out of a playoff berth by virtue of tie-breaking procedures.

The Jets just can’t catch a break; they even miss the playoffs in their only winning season in a decade.

Last year, New York made Brigham Young Quarterback Zach Wilson their first choice in the draft, selected second overall behind Trevor Lawrence. His rookie season was marred by injuries and the Jets seemed mostly out of sync during his rookie season. While New York fans were hoping for a positive turnaround this year with both their young quarterback and team, things have not started well. In his first preseason game. Wilson suffered an injury that required surgery and he is known to be missing the season opener next Sunday against Baltimore. Whether he will need additional weeks before Wilson returns to game action is not yet decided.

Here is how the Jets built their perfect preseason this year; they fell behind and then turned the offense over to Canadian Football veteran Chris Streveler who was up against an opponent’s backup defensive personnel. The results were perfect. Streveler led the Jets from deficits to wins in all three games with multiple fourth quarter scores. In three preseason outings, Streveler combined for 24 pass completions on 33 attempts and five scoring throws against only one interception. His heroics reached a fever pitch a couple Sundays ago when he engineered his third come-from-behind win over the rival Giants in their preseason finale.

The problem with this for the Jets, is that what New York is left with is the same unit that had caused those deficits that Streveler and company had to overcome. Wilson is sidelined, Streveler is on the practice squad, and Joe Flacco is behind center. I don’t see anything in that set of circumstances that favors the home team on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

What does bode well for New York in the not too distant future, and this is contingent on Wilson developing into a top flight NFL quarterback, is a bright future with a team that is loaded with talent. At some point, somebody is going to put it all together and enjoy some solid seasons for the fans of the football team in New York wearing green.

Head Coach Robert Saleh begins his second campaign with the Jets and he appears to have this organization headed in the right direction even if the results have not yet caught up to the process. On Sunday, New York opens against a team that I think is headed to Super Bowl LVII. It appears to be too early for the developing New York team to compete against a talented Baltimore squad.

I write about this game first because this is one of those contests where if you are on the favorite it is best to get them at the current line. The number has already risen 2½ points from the opening number posted three weeks ago, 4½. The most common current line has the Ravens favored by seven points.

While the vig on this game will shift with the books not looking to get off this seven number, I don’t see it coming down to 6½ points. The best bet today is to lock in the seven point line at the best possible vig number and protect against a run on the Ravens next Sunday that has the books fishing for Jets money with lines as high as 8½ points.

Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-7) over the New York Jets

Unwise

by Dennis Ranahan

I respect the elements the wise guys are seeing to lead them to back the New England Patriots tonight when they battle the Buffalo Bills to kickoff the 13the week of National Football League action.

This is a game between two division opponents with the team in first place two games ahead of their home underdog opponent.

Advantage home underdog.

The Buffalo Bills are now playing their third straight road game after having a scheduled home date shifted to Detroit to avoid the record snowfall in Buffalo. In that game, the Bills won in unconvincing fashion while covering the line by the score of 31-23. The Bills were favored by 7½ points in their win over the Cleveland Browns. Last week, on Thanksgiving, they battled the Detroit Lions yard-for-yard, point-for-point, before escaping the holiday with a three point win, 28-25.

Not high credentials for a team that was favored by 9½ points in Detroit and opened as a six point favorite in this AFC Division tilt against Bill Belichick’s squad.

Reasoning can deduce that if the Bills had trouble winning against Detroit on the road, they are likely to have more trouble trying to beat the Patriots by more points a road game later.

This is a rare Thursday night game where both teams come in following a full week between contests. Both the Bills and Patriots played on Thanksgiving, the Bills with their victory in Detroit and the Patriots losing to the Vikings in Minnesota.

While respecting the preponderance of evidence that the wise guys follow to come up with the Patriots (+3½) being the side tonight, I beg to differ on a more important criteria; the unique factors that feed this game.

When a first place team is meeting a team two games back in their standings, they are often playing their primary competition. But, the Bills are not playing their primary competition tonight, that comes from the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, who both have better records than the Patriots while all four AFC East teams currently have more wins than losses.

The only reason the Patriots are considered in this division race at all is because they beat the Jets twice, 22-17 in October and 10-3 last month. Beating the Jets to remain in the race is a lot less difficult than beating the best team in the division while trying to knock them out of the top spot.

The Bills have had seven days to prepare for this game with the knowledge that their effort against Detroit would not be enough to beat the Patriots tonight. That puts the better team on full alert.

The better team knowing it has to play better while locked in a tight division race against quality teams is the perfect spot for the Bills to bounce off a narrow win over the Lions with a lopsided triumph against the Patriots.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-3½) over New England Patriots

Not Our Money

by Dennis Ranahan

I’ve got a couple great reasons to bet on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup when the Indianapolis Colts entertain the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Only problem is, one of the great reasons is on one side, and the other great reason is on the other team. So, we can have a great point spread proposition on the Colts laying less than three points at home against a team they grade out better against or a team that owns a significant motivational edge in the Steelers.

It can also be ascertained by their recent play that the Colts are having fun playing for their recently named head coach, Jeff Saturday. The one time star on the Colts offensive line is now at the center of attention as the Colts midseason replacement for another popular with the players head coach, Frank Reich.

The first thing Saturday did when he took over a few weeks ago was reinstall Matt Ryan as the Colts starting quarterback. A totally anemic Indianapolis offense while under the direction of second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which was a last ditch effort by Reich to give his team a chance while his offensive line wasn’t good enough to protect a stationary Ryan.

In other words, for Reich, plan A didn’t work and neither did Plan B, and it cost him his job. Saturday was a controversial hire, a man who had twice turned down opportunities to join the Colts coaching staff as an assistant, was suddenly the head guy.

How would this work out?

While I wouldn’t bet on Saturday ever hoisting a trophy won on Super Sunday while head coach, the ability to align a roster currently more talented than tonight’s opponent is within his grasp. Since his hiring three weeks ago, the team responded with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Saturday’s first game and a staunch challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles last week, a contest won by Philadelphia, 17-16.

Then bet on the Colts tonight?

Not a chance.

The Steelers have a head coach that is likely going to suffer his first losing season ever in Mike Tomlin. The man brings a sincere intensity to his role that inspires his team’s to their best efforts, and you can be sure that this group will do all they can to avoid handing Tomlin his first losing campaign in his 16 seasons as the Steelers head coach.

What these two teams have in common is that they both have proud traditions and are most often included when the playoff field is dealt. This year, both are unlikely participants in the postseason, and with a loss tonight, either of them could move precariously close to mathematically eliminated.

Which team has got the guile to get the win tonight?

The Steelers have our nod, but not our money.

Night Off

by Dennis Ranahan

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles meet tonight in a game that before the season began you would think the season results were opposite. The Packers came into this season one of the favorites to represent the National Football Conference in Super Bowl LVII. In actuality, it is the Eagles who have the best record in the NFC and the Packers trail the Minnesota Vikings by four games with as much chance of earning a postseason slot as you or I.

The Eagles come into tonight’s action with the best record in football, nine wins against a single loss. But, it can be deduced that the Eagles are done dominating opponents based on losing their last three games against the point spread to the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts.

The Packers, on the other hand, are as reliable this year as an old car with a weak battery on a cold winter morning.

Green Bay has lost six of their last seven games and their offense, once the pride of Aaron Rodgers, is sputtering as much as a car running two cylinders short.

Now, the NFL is not like a dance, where you leave with the girl you brought.

In the NFL, teams that often dominated the first half of a season have trouble covering point spreads from the midpoint on. Put the Eagles in that category.

Now, there is no way we want to back a Green Bay team with only a shadow of their past effectiveness, but to back the Eagles giving six points to Aaron Rodgers is to jump on a bandwagon a bit late.

Don’t want the Eagles, not willing to back the Packers.

What does that leave us with tonight … a night off.

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