The National Football League kicks off their first full week of preseason action tonight with a pair of games. The contests include the New York Giants visiting the New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans at the Baltimore Ravens.
Whether it is preseason or regular season the first step in beating the books is making sure you don’t give them what they want. The people most adept at setting lines and moving numbers that attract average gamblers to the wrong side of a proposition are the bookmakers. The books often take sides in games; the idea that they can balance wagers equally on both sides of a contest with line adjustments is mostly a myth.
That is not to say the books wouldn’t love to have an equal amount of money on both teams in a game and make their sure profit on the vig alone. But, given equal betting amounts on both sides are rare, the books are just as committed to enticing the bettors to what they consider the less likely side to win.
Tonight, we have a couple games that illustrate this point.
The home-standing Ravens have won 20 straight preseason games under head coach John Harbaugh and in 13 of those contests had a winning margin of a touchdown or more. Betting against the Ravens in the preseason appears high risk. This week, the books opened Baltimore as a 2½ point favorite over the Tennessee Titans and people with knowledge of the Ravens preseason success ran to the window to get down on Harbaugh’s team. The line quickly shot up to Baltimore favored by five points.
In a move I can’t fully understand, the line has dropped down since that initial surge even while nearly 80% of the individual wagers are backing the home team. Today, the Ravens are favored by a field goal or a half point more than three points.