The National Football League kicks off their first full week of preseason action tonight with a pair of games. The contests include the New York Giants visiting the New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans at the Baltimore Ravens.
Whether it is preseason or regular season the first step in beating the books is making sure you don’t give them what they want. The people most adept at setting lines and moving numbers that attract average gamblers to the wrong side of a proposition are the bookmakers. The books often take sides in games; the idea that they can balance wagers equally on both sides of a contest with line adjustments is mostly a myth.
That is not to say the books wouldn’t love to have an equal amount of money on both teams in a game and make their sure profit on the vig alone. But, given equal betting amounts on both sides are rare, the books are just as committed to enticing the bettors to what they consider the less likely side to win.
Tonight, we have a couple games that illustrate this point.
The home-standing Ravens have won 20 straight preseason games under head coach John Harbaugh and in 13 of those contests had a winning margin of a touchdown or more. Betting against the Ravens in the preseason appears high risk. This week, the books opened Baltimore as a 2½ point favorite over the Tennessee Titans and people with knowledge of the Ravens preseason success ran to the window to get down on Harbaugh’s team. The line quickly shot up to Baltimore favored by five points.
In a move I can’t fully understand, the line has dropped down since that initial surge even while nearly 80% of the individual wagers are backing the home team. Today, the Ravens are favored by a field goal or a half point more than three points.
Why?
I don’t know.
But I do know this, when I can’t explain something I don’t gamble on my opinion.
In the contest between the Giants and Patriots we have a team that the public thinks highly of and the Giants. And, the wagering on this opening preseason game has bent towards the seven time Super Bowl Champion Patriots. Even though the Giants downed the Patriots twice in their two Super Bowl matchups, the Patriots are widely considered the better team and are getting public backing tonight as nearly 60% of the wagers are backing Bill Belichick’s squad.
But, preseason results are not tied to perceived team strengths based on regular season play and postseason success. Preseason results are more often driven by coaching philosophies and marketing objectives. Some organizations look for preseason wins to spike season ticket sales and create interest in teams that have had trouble winning regular season games.
The New England Patriots have nothing to prove in the preseason. They are a perennial postseason participant and Belichick utilizes the preseason to prepare for the games that count.
It may surprise the people wagering on New England tonight that since 2005 the Patriots and Giants have met each year during the preseason and in those 16 games the Giants are 11-5 straight-up and 10-4-2 versus the point spread.
The bettors backing the Patriots may not know that, but the books do. And that is why the line on this game has shifted 4½ points since the Patriots opened as a 2 point favorite. Right now, the Giants are a 2½ point road favorite, by kickoff tonight, that number could likely rise to the Giants by three points.
Bettors coming to the window to wager on this game will be surprised that they are getting points with the Patriots on their home field … one of those games that they might think the books have wrong. When in fact, the books look to make the bettors wrong.
I know why this line is moving, I know what the books want, and I’m looking to be right.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (-2½) over New England Patriots