When I worked in the Oakland Raiders front office in the 1970’s, people would sometimes ask me what I did the rest of the year. As if football only required work when the games were being played.
Today, most everyone knows that front office “games” are played in the National Football League year around. It is true that in the 70’s the publicity used to go dark during the offseason and as an organization the Raiders used to host media dinners in April to get some press coverage to coincide with the release of season ticket renewals.
Things are quite different today.
First of all, we used to stage the NFL draft in February, just a few weeks after the Super Bowl was played. It was argued by the more successful teams, like the Raiders, that the quick turnaround from the playoffs to draft put teams that had earned playoff dates at a disadvantage. They didn’t have as much time to focus totally on the college talent while still playing games while teams that missed the postseason had already shifted their attention to the college talent.
The league decided to stage the draft in the spring, not surprisingly also coinciding with the release of the schedule and season ticket sales. This year, the NFL draft will begin on April 28.
The league is getting a lot more off-season publicity these days on free agent signings and situations like whether Aaron Rodgers will return to Green Bay in 2022 and if the Packers will be able to sign top receiver Davante Adams if he doesn’t.
Rodgers has said he wants to make his decision with the Packers quickly to allow the team time to make the proper moves if he does or doesn’t sign a new contract. When has Rodgers ever misled us?
A year ago, the off-season saw the Los Angeles Rams mortgage their future for the present and they got rewarded with their first Super Bowl title in Los Angeles. Sending first round draft picks and their starting quarterback to Detroit for the signal caller they thought could take them over the hump, Matthew Stafford. Mid-season, the Rams sent another pair of high draft choices to the Denver Broncos and acquired Von Miller to bolster an already talented defense.
The moves paid off this year when the Rams won their first Super Bowl in Los Angeles, both as a franchise and game site. I did cringe when announcers reported this was the first Super Bowl win for Los Angeles. Their report apparently recognized that the Rams previous Super Bowl victory to complete the 1999 season was while they were playing out of St. Louis, but missing that the City of Los Angeles did win a Super Bowl to complete the 1983 season when the Los Angeles Raiders beat the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII.
While I no longer work in the league, my professional life is still involved with the NFL. And, as you may suspect, some people ask me after the Super Bowl is complete what I’m doing during the off-season. Just as when I was with the Raiders, my current work to isolate point spread winners in the NFL is a year around job.
While next month’s draft will help determine which teams may have improved themselves enough to wrestle the Vince Lombardi Trophy away from the Rams, there is a lot more work done between now and when the teams report to camp in July.
The first job is to review the 2021 season, why did we pick the teams we picked, where were our assumptions rewarded with a win and how did we sometimes end up on a team that didn’t deliver what we expected? Our Top Picks in 2021 were 16-6 against the point spread, a solid season but how can we eliminate the six losses. Only once in 41 years have the Top Picks ended with a losing season and once delivered a perfect campaign. Qoxhi Top Picks have compiled a lifetime percentage of just under 70% winners.
The review of last year is the first step in preparation for the 2022 NFL season, and a plotting of the teams from best to worst is a process that begins now and is subject to adjustments as information dictates.
So, enjoy your off-season of NFL action and know we are at work to make your upcoming campaign the most profitable ever.