The National Football League completes their regular season this weekend and more than half of the teams in the league, 18, still have a shot at winning Super Bowl LVI … or at least getting into the postseason tournament.
Just getting into the playoff field can be enough when one considers that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the playoffs as the fifth seed last year and had to play three postseason games on the road before winning Super Bowl LV, ironically, on their home field.
Six of the eight division titles have been decided with the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals winning their divisions in the American Football Conference. In the National Football Conference, the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys have all clinched their divisions.
The only team to lock down a first week postseason bye is the Green Bay Packers, while the AFC top seed will be decided on Sunday if the Kansas City Chiefs win tomorrow against the Denver Broncos. If the Broncos upset the Chiefs, then the Titans claim the first week bye based on their head-to-head victory over the Chiefs 11 weeks ago with a win on Sunday. If both the Chiefs lose on Saturday and the Titans get upset by the Houston Texans on Sunday, then the Bengals could get the top seed with a victory over the Cleveland Browns.
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots have both clinched a postseason berth, while the winner of the AFC East Division will be decided this weekend. The Bills host the New York Jets and will win it with a victory, while the Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins and would need both a road win and a Bills loss to claim the top spot.
Five teams remain in the hunt for the final two Wild Card slots in the AFC, they are the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders and Chargers play each other in the Sunday night contest, and if they tie, they both advance while eliminating the other three teams vying for a postseason date.
If that happens, if the two teams tie, well, in the words of Ricky Ricardo, there will be a lot of explaining to do.
Either the Los Angeles Rams or Arizona Cardinals will win the NFC West. The Rams can do it by beating the San Francisco 49ers in their game played at SoFi Stadium on Sunday or by virtue of a Cardinals loss. Arizona hosts the Seattle Seahawks in the same time slot the Rams will be entertaining the 49ers.
Here is the difficulty for the Rams, the 49ers need the game more than Los Angeles. While the Rams would like to win the West, the 49ers need a victory to assure a postseason berth, while a loss would allow the New Orleans Saints to slip into the seventh and final Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Saints are in Atlanta on Sunday to play the Falcons.
There is a formula to win in the final week of the regular season, and it is so consistent that this is the one NFL week when the books set lower limits on wager amounts. The books don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of a game where only one team has a vested interest in the outcome. The most consistent winner in this situation is a team that needs a win to advance against a squad already locked into their playoff seed.
This year, we don’t get that huge edge. The only team locked into their playoff slot is the Packers, and they host the eliminated Detroit Lions. The Cincinnati Bengals are playing the final week as if they couldn’t improve their postseason seed while resting key players even though they would have that mathematical chance of earning the AFC top seed if they beat the Cleveland Browns while both the Chiefs and Titans lose their games.
One might think that a team that needed a win to advance playing a team that was eliminated would have an advantage … they don’t. A team that only needs to win to advance playing a team already eliminated is a consistent point spread loser for two reasons. First, the point spread is most often bloated on the team that needs it and their eliminated opponent has nothing to lose and can affect the playoffs with a win. From a motivational perspective, the team playing their last game with a chance to affect the playoff field often takes advantage of that spot.
So, what does that leave us with?
No final week of the season built in advantage based on need and want, seven teams vying for three remaining Wild Card playoff berths, and the Chargers and Raiders in the most unusual situation where a tie serves to provide a postseason date for both teams.
First things first.
The Kansas City Chiefs still have a chance to earn the top seed and the Denver Broncos appear to us to be no more than road kill for Andy Reid’s team coming off a disappointing loss in Cincinnati.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-11) over Denver Broncos