The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills square off tonight with the AFC East Division Championship awarded to the winner.
When today began, the Bills thought they would need a win in this contest to advance to the postseason field. But, the Jacksonville Jaguars loss earlier today to the Tennessee Titans assured the Bills of no less than a Wild Card berth this season.
The formula of a team assured of a playoff berth, like Miami, against a team that needs the win to get into the postseason fray, like Buffalo, bends heavily in favor of the team that needs the game to get into the playoffs.
Advantage Buffalo.
But, there are extenuating circumstances when these two meet tonight. With a win, the Dolphins clinch the AFC East title and a pair of home games in the playoffs if they win in the Wild Card round. With a loss, Miami is relegated to a road game in the Wild Card round and probably will never play in front of their home fans again this season. A win, and the Dolphins are champions of the AFC East; a loss, and they are the fifth seed and a Wild Card team.
That puts a lot more pressure, good pressure, on the Dolphins performing at a high level tonight.
Still, it is most difficult to back a team with any confidence that doesn’t need the game to advance against a team that does.
But, now that all is even in that both the Bills and Dolphins will see action during the playoffs, the built in advantage the Bills may have owned is now gone.
Instead, we get a Mimai team looking to claim the division title they have led all season, and looking for revenge against a Bills team that ended their three game season opening win streak with a humbling 48-20 hammering in October.
If the Jaguars would have won in Tennessee earlier today, then the motivational factors would lean in the Bills favor.
But, their loss, which guaranteed the Bills a playoff date, gives the slight advantage in this game back to the home standing Dolphins.
Not enough, by the way, to back either team with money, but at least the earlier results today give the home fans a much better chance of celebrating a division title tonight.