NFL 2024 Season - Week 11
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 11
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Enough Already
by Dennis Ranahan

There are six National Football League preseason games on today’s schedule beginning with a pair of contests that start at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Qoxhi offers a rated play on one of these games, and that selection is now posted on this site.

In one of the early games, the Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, the visitors will be under the direction of first-year head coach Shane Steichen and the Bills defense will feature the return to action of defensive back Damar Hamlin. In a story that superseded the game itself, Hamlin suffered a near fatal cardiac arrest on the field last January. The incident highlighted the NFL’s readiness with top flight medical care.

One could only wish that the league took officiating the games as seriously. How we can have refs in this billion dollar game that are not full time remains one of the glaring weaknesses of the NFL.

In addition to Steichen making his first appearance as an NFL head coach, the man he replaced as a full time head coach in Indianapolis, Frank Reich, will be on the sidelines with his new team, the Carolina Panthers. The New York Jets visit Carolina today in a contest set to start at 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time.

A number of years ago, a first-year Qoxhi Picks client asked why we couldn’t deliver him an easier game? Even though our picks were winning, he thought our selections were too hard and often included a seemingly overmatched team against a more highly regarded opponent.

I assured him then that our only goal in making our picks was to beat the point spread, and often those selections are in opposition to conventional public thinking. He might be crying the same way today when our only pick is headed right into the Baltimore Ravens 23 game preseason winning streak.

That’s right. The Baltimore Ravens have not lost a preseason game since 2015 and today we are backing the Philadelphia Eagles plus the five points over John Harbaugh’s summer juggernaut.

Why?

When a team or situation is a consistent winner for the public the guys in control of setting the point spreads bend the advantage away from the popular play. The Ravens 23 game winning streak includes a point spread record of 20-2-1. But those stats were not built while everyone knew the Ravens were invincible in the preseason, they had point spreads set without a dramatic lean for or against Baltimore.

Now, with the public backing the Ravens like they are a sure thing, the books have shaded the line to offer a gaping advantage for their opponents.

Once again, I’m only making this play because I’m dedicated to winning and utilizing the edge of looking to win with the books … who are darn right tired of losing while the public backs the Ravens.

Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (+5) over Baltimore Ravens