A high school student matching my description was called into the principal’s office in January, 1967. Mr. Dimon had learned that the student, yeah, it was me, had been taking bets on the first championship game between the American and National Football Leagues.
After a brief discussion on the evils of gambling and how I needed to give back the money to those that made wagers, he afforded me no further punishment. As I was leaving his office, Mr. Dimon asked me, “By the way Dennis, what’s the point spread in this game and what do you think?”
I turned and enthusiastically said, “The Packers are favored by two touchdowns, but lay ‘em, they are going to win easy.”
I said this even while the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver, Otis Taylor, was my favorite player in the league. And, my advice to Mr. Dimon was right on, the Green Bay Packers did win easy and covered the 13½ point spread, 35-10.
The next year, the Packers were back in the game, and again both won the game and covered the point spread while beating the Oakland Raiders, 33-14. I was in college when the Baltimore Colts met the New York Jets in Super Bowl III, and like most people, I still figured the NFL was ahead of the AFL and would win a third straight.
They didn’t. Joe Namath made good on a “guarantee” and the Jets were the first AFL team to win a title game between the two competing leagues. The next year, for the first time, the game was billed as a Super Bowl, and the season before the NFL and AFL would merge to create the American and National Football Conference alignment, the underdog Chiefs upset the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV.
After that game, some trend players were early adopters that Super Bowls were won by teams with experience. The Packers won their second over the Raiders when Oakland was a first time participant. The Chiefs were in their second Super Bowl when they upset Bud Grant’s favored Vikings.
That trend worked in Super Bowl V, when the Colts beat the Dallas Cowboys, who were making their first Super Bowl appearance and the Colts their second. The following year, the experienced Cowboys beat the first-time participating Miami Dolphins. In 1972, the Dolphins completed their perfect season in their second Super Bowl appearance while the Washington Redskins lost their first attempt.
That trend was first interrupted in the 1974 season when the first time participating Pittsburgh Steelers beat the experienced Vikings. But, the experience factor in the Super Bowl illuminated the winner nine times in the first 10 games played between a team that had been to the Super Bowl before and one making their initial appearance.
That trend was pierced for a second time to complete the 1986 season, that year the New York Giants downed the Denver Broncos, 39-20, in Super Bowl XXI. In other words, for the first 20 plus Super Bowls the only two experienced playoff teams to lose to a first time participant were the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos, and those two teams each lost four Super Bowl games before winning one … and the Vikings haven’t even been back for their fifth try.
Going back to the Super Bowl IX contest between the Steelers and Vikings, while I was working in the Raiders front office at the time and wasn’t gambling on the games, I certainly would have taken the Vikings based on the experience factor. But, something was more important … talent.
Next week, the Kansas City Chiefs will be making their third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons, while the Philadelphia Eagles are making their third ever trip to the Super Bowl and the first since they downed the New England Patriots to complete the 2017 season. Only three players remain on the Eagles roster that were on the team when they upset Tom Brady and company in Super Bowl LII.
So, does the experience edge favor Andy Reid’s squad in Super Bowl LVII?
Yep.
Is that enough?
So many other factors to consider, but score one edge for the Chiefs.