I like to play golf but only get out two or three times a year and am not very good. My brother, Mike, is a great golfer, plays more rounds in a week than I do in a year, and when we play at his club he will offer me a friendly handicap.
If Mike offers me a stroke a hole, he is still going to most often beat me. The real number for our handicaps would be if he offered me 1.2 strokes a hole, but who wants to mess with that math while involved in a friendly game of beer drinking and golf?
But, if Mike was to offer me an easier to calculate two strokes a hole, almost every time I would beat him with that equation.
Tonight, the Philadelphia Eagles are offering the Houston Texans a point spread akin to two strokes a hole.
The Eagles are the lone undefeated team in the NFL and have only lost one point spread decision en route to their 7-0 straight-up mark. That loss, a Week Five encounter against the Arizona Cardinals on the road, was when the Eagles had a point spread price, according to Qoxhi charts, of 91. That 91 represented their highest price of the season in a year in which the Eagles have averaged 87.
Tonight, their point spread price is 105.
The Houston Texans have lost only one game this year by more than ten points, two weeks ago in Las Vegas when they carried a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter before surrendering three unanswered touchdowns to the Raiders. Last week, at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Texans were beaten on the field a lot worse than the score would indicate. The 17-10 Tennessee victory in Houston included the Titans running all over the overmatched Texans defense for 314 yards while rookie quarterback, Malik Willis, made his first NFL start.
Is that an indicator that the Texans are horrible?
More likely, it is conclusive evidence that the Texans fans need not reserve any flights to Arizona in anticipation of an appearance in Super Bowl LVII.
But, off that loss, and with the Eagles flying in undefeated following a blowout home win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, is a perfect time for a surprise competitive effort by the home team tonight.
I may never beat Mike in a golf game, but give me two strokes a hole and I can count on him buying the drinks after the round.
Just like tonight, I expect Houston to pay dividends with the bloated point spread.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+14) over Philadelphia Eagles