Life is a bell curve.
And it is most evident when studying statistical trends in athletic competition. While the center of the bell curve indicates the medium occurrence for an event, the extremes play an intriguing role.
Consider this, between 1984 and 2000 the Atlanta Falcons won 15 consecutive games against the point spread when playing the New Orleans Saints on the road. You can imagine that it took some time, and negative results, before many trend gamblers weaned themselves off that “edge”.
I don’t consider something a reliable edge unless it has some objective measure driving the result. I suspect that the Falcons run in New Orleans had a lot more influential factors governing those results than simply where the games were played. And like any set of stats, sometimes elements add up to favor one side for a prolonged span of time with an obvious trend, like the game site or if favored or getting points on the spread.
Consider this, the Arizona Cardinals had a seven year run against the San Francisco 49ers where they swept them in their two game season series five times beginning in 2015. During those seven seasons, 2015 through 2021, the Cardinals were 11-3 straight-up against a 49ers team that only once swept the season series against the Cardinals, that being in 2019 when San Francisco won the NFC and played in Super Bowl LIV.
You can understand why a number of bettors figured that for some reason the Cardinals had the 49ers number and a bet on Arizona was followed by a trip to the payout window.
Then, last year, this trend was halted by a pair of lopsided San Francisco victories and they got the Cardinals again earlier this year with a point spread clearing 35-16 triumph at Levi’s Stadium. Today, they complete their 2023 two game set against the Cardinals and the 49ers are favored by double digits for the fourth straight time.
It has taken a little time, but the bettors are no longer confident in the Cardinals ability to stay with the more talented San Francisco squad. The majority of wagers on this game, by a margin of nearly two to one, are favoring San Francisco.
Now, I don’t have the inclination to go over all the results from a dozen or so years and why they occurred in this NFC West Division rivalry, but I can tell you why the 49ers covered the last three games while winning by scores of 38-10, 38-13 and 35-16. More importantly, I can tell you why they are not going to cover the double-digit spread today in Arizona.
The 49ers turnaround success against the Cardinals has been driven by the 49ers emerging again as an elite power in the NFL. They have also needed those past games against the Cardinals while locked in tight division races with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. And finally, the 49ers were aware of the dominance the Cardinals maintained over them and were inspired to throttle down with superior talent.
Today, the 49ers are plotted as the number one seed in the NFC and that is a position that they want to maintain. Emphasis on the word want … not need.
Second in importance, is that the 49ers have now established their excellence to the point that they don’t have to blow opponents away. San Francisco is good enough to just coast to wins over inferior opponents while keeping the action in front of them and taking home a comfortable if not blowout winning margin.
Those factors put points at a premium in a 49ers contest. Today, the Cardinals enter this game out of the playoff hunt and with two weeks to prepare, they had their bye last weekend, for their contest against a team that would gain them credibility just for staying competitive.
Which is exactly what the 49ers will be willing to do, win the game without running up the score.
Qoxhi Picks: Arizona Cardinals (+12) over San Francisco 49ers