The National Football League kicks off their fifth week of regular season action tonight when the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears. Both these teams lost close contests last week by a field goal, but that is where the similarities end.
The Commanders loss was suffered on the road against the defending National Football Conference Philadelphia Eagles, 34-31. The Bears defeat was at home as an underdog against the previously winless Denver Broncos, 31-28.
The Chicago loss is worth studying. They were in a prime motivational spot against a Broncos team that had been scorched for 70 points the prior week by the Miami Dolphins and now were road favorites at Soldier Field. The Bears took advantage of the motivational edge while building a 28-7 second-half lead.
Then the game for the home team went south.
Most notable was the Bears decision to go for a first down on fourth-and-one with under three minutes to go from the Broncos 18-yard-line.
Why not kick the field goal and take the three point lead?
It was obvious by that time in the game head coach Matt Eberflus no longer trusted his defense which appeared to be trying to stop the Broncos attack like a screen door battling wind. With that as a backdrop, the decision to go for the first down could have been viewed as brilliant. Had the Bears picked up the fourth-and-one attempt it is possible they could have milked the clock and kicked the potential winning field goal with little or no time left on the game clock.
But, the Bears didn’t pick up the yard for a first down, and the Broncos took over and drove for the winning field goal.
While many would question the Bears decision to go for the first I think a more important point needs to be evaluated. If the Chicago staff didn’t trust their defense why should we when they meet the Commanders tonight in Washington?
We shouldn’t.
So, bet on the home team and lay the six points tonight?
There is high risk on that side of tonight’s proposition too. The Commanders are coming off a game where they are getting credit for staying close to the Eagles last week but that result could more likely be attributed to Philadelphia being overconfident. The defending NFC Champs were at home and riding a three game winning streak and the Commanders were coming off a 34 point home loss to the Buffalo Bills, 37-3.
Do you think the Eagles were on full alert for last week’s game?
Probably not.
But when Philadelphia needed a play against Ron Rivera’s Commanders to win the game, they got it.
This week, the team that is more likely motivated based on the motivational scale is the Bears, but do you want a team that their coach isn't confident can hold a winless Broncos team in the final minutes to preserve a three point lead?
I don’t.
We get to find out tonight whether Washington is capable of seriously competing for a playoff berth in the talented NFC East Division against the Dallas Cowboys and Eagles, or more relegated to also-ran status with the New York Giants.
As for the Bears, they are already established as “also-rans” and only left to see if the point spread tonight can tip the final decision to their first point spread win of the season.
We’ll watch and learn, but not pay for the lesson.